549
AXNT20 KNHC 040612
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED FEB 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT
THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO GENERATE LARGE, LONG-
PERIOD NW TO N SWELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT FROM 25N TO 31N AND EAST OF 60W. THIS
AREA OF VERY ROUGH SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT, THEN MOVE EAST OF 35W ON FRI.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE GUINEA COAST NEAR
CONAKRY, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N19W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 05N19W THROUGH 02N30W TO NORTHEAST OF
SAO, BRAZIL AT 02N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 01N TO 05N AND
EAST OF 18W, AND UP TO 80 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
27W AND 36W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM OFF CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO NEAR TAMPICO, MEXICO. IT IS DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE ESE TO S WINDS. EXCEPT THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 3 TO 5 FT WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
ENE WINDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF BY EARLY WED MORNING, THEN SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF
REGION THROUGH LATE THU. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 14W76W, THEN TRANSFORMS INTO A
SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS RELATED TO THESE FEATURES ARE
SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN, NORTH OF 10N. FRESH TO NEAR-GALE
NE TO E WINDS WITH 7 TO 11 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE CENTRAL AND
PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD AND MONA
PASSAGES. GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH NNE TO ENE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WED. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE E AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NORTH OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT, REACHING
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ON WED, AND REMAINING OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. THEN, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE ON THU, AND WILL MERGE WITH
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. THE NEW FRONT WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS, AND IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY, REACHING FROM
EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. BY SAT MORNING, FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WITH
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING OFFSHORE
NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS 31N43W TO JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, WHERE
IT TRANSFORM INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TO BEYOND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND NEAR AND UP TO 80 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY. PLEASE REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WITH 10 TO 14 FT SEAS ARE NOTED UP TO 200
NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT, EAST OF 43W. FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF
8 TO 12 FT ARE NOTED NEAR THE FRONT, NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 55W.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WITH SEAS AT 8 TO 10 FT ARE SEEN UP TO
100 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT, WEST OF 55W. TWO HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL FROM 20N TO
26N, AND OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT DOMINATE THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
FROM 05N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED MODERATE
SWELL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE NORTH PART OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART OF IT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY WED, THEN THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT N LATE ON WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA ON THU. ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA BY FRI
MORNING, AND FROM 25N55W TO PUERTO RICO ON SAT. GALE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS
N OF 29N THU NIGHT AND FRI. STRONG LOW PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE N
WATERS E OF 70W SAT NIGHT AND SUN.
CHAN
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