189
AXNT20 KNHC 041744
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED FEB 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
GALE-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT THE NORTH-
CENTRAL TO EAST ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO GENERATE LARGE, LONG- PERIOD
NW TO N SWELL ACROSS THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A
RESULT, EXPECT SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 30W
AND 55W. THIS AREA OF VERY ROUGH SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THU NIGHT, THEN MOVE EAST OF 35W ON FRI.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE SIERRA LEONE
COAST NEAR 07N12W, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N20W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 03N20W THROUGH 00N45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM 00N TO 05N BETWEEN
10W AND 37W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF, EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO ABOUT 26N93W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN ALONG AND NEAR THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF
26N, WHILE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE OR
WEAKER. SEAS RANGE FROM 2-5 FT BEHIND THE FRONT TO 1-3 FT ACROSS
THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF AND EXTENDS
FROM SW LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THU MORNING. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF AREA FROM W
TO E THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NW GULF.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WSW
TO NEAR 15N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED ALONG 80W FROM
THE SW CARIBBEAN TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE
HELPING TO INDUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH OF JAMAICA. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, DRIVEN BY THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIA LOW. SEAS ARE
7-10 FT IN THIS REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT IN THE EASTERN, NW, AND SW
CARIBBEAN, WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SEEING SEAS OF
2-5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
14N78W. THE FRONT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRESH
TO LOCALLY NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH, REMNANTS OF THE FRONT, WILL MOVE W AND REACH THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA TODAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU. A COLD
FRONT WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE ON THU MORNING AND WILL
MERGE WITH THE TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT, FORECAST TO REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT AND FROM HAITI TO PANAMA FRI MORNING
WHERE IT WILL START TO WEAKEN. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WITH ROUGH
SEAS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT, DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N32W TO 22N51W, WHERE IT BECOMES A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT THEN EXTENDS TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE SEEN BEHIND THE LARGE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ALSO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, GENERALLY N OF A LINE
RUNNING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NEAR 31N10W. A STRONG PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A LARGE GALE-FORCE LOW N OF THE REGION AND A
HIGH NEAR 25N25W IS DRIVING THE LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO SEEN N OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB IS SW OF BERMUDA, SUPPORTING MAINLY
LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS N OF 25N. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ALSO ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH NEAR 25N25W. MUCH OF THE
REMAINING BASIN IS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 6-9
FT PREVAIL, ASIDE FROM REGIONS N OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS ARE 4-7
FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE SE
WATERS AND RUNS FROM 20N55W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 23N. HIGH PRESSURE,
WITH A 1026 MB CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29N69W, DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO LIFT N ON THU WHILE WEAKENING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA ON THU. ANOTHER ROUND
OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO
HISPANIOLA BY FRI MORNING, AND FROM 25N55W TO PUERTO RICO ON SAT.
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N THU NIGHT AND FRI. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE FORECAST REGION COULD BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS ACROSS THE N WATERS E OF 74W SAT
THROUGH SUN.
ADAMS
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