803
AXNT20 KNHC 042157
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU FEB 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SW AND N-CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:
PLEASE SEE THE NEXT SPECIAL FEATURE FOR ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT
W-NW SWELLS.
SW AND N-CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS BEGINNING WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY THU, WITH ASSOCIATED GALE-FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING
THU NIGHT THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS FROM 25N TO 31N EAST OF 75W
BY EARLY FRI. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 17 FT NEAR 31N.
LOOKING AHEAD, THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY GET REINFORCED AND BUILD
EVEN LARGER DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE GALE-FORCE WINDS
ALSO GET REINFORCED AND EXPAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: GALE-FORCE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL TO EAST
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO GENERATE LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NW TO N SWELL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A RESULT,
EXPECT SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN EAST OF 52W.
THIS AREA OF VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL COMPLETELY MOVE EAST OF 35W BY
FRI.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE BORDER OF SIERRA
LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 07.5N12W, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
03N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 03N20W TO NEAR
THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 00N45.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ONGOING FROM ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF 06N TO THE
EQUATOR.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE
MEXICO AT 23N98W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE NORTH OF 26N
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SLIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ABOUT
120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE NE GULF COASTAL WATERS PER COASTAL RADAR DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE
THU MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF
AREA FROM W TO E THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE NW GULF. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 14N78W. WEST OF THE
FRONT, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED AND RUNS FROM NEAR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TO 10N80W. A LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS, IS WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. FRESH TO LOCALLY NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE EAST
OF 85W, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WEST OF 85W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS ARE 7
TO 11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 18N, AND MAINLY 4 TO 7
FT ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR NE AND E
CARIBBEAN ATLANTIC PASSAGES.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF AMERICA, WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE ON THU MORNING AND
WILL MERGE WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT, FORECAST TO REACH
FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT AND FROM HAITI
TO PANAMA FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL START TO WEAKEN. FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT, DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO
FRESH SPEEDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON A NEW
ATLANTIC DEVELOPING GALE WARNING AS WELL AS TWO SIGNIFICANT SWELL
EVENTS.
A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N29W TO 22N50W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
STATIONARY WHILE EXTENDING TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN
20W AND 50W, WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ALSO SOUTH OF 27N
WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8 FT OR
GREATER ARE NORTH OF A LINE FROM 28N13W TO 20N42W TO THE MONA
PASSAGE AND EAST OF ABOUT 67W.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT NEAR 25N25W.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE SOUTH OF 20N WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT
EAST OF FRONT AWAY FROM THE ROUGH SEAS AREA DESCRIBED ABOVE. A
1025 MB HIGH IS WEST OF THE FRONT NEAR 29N64W. WINDS ARE MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE AND ANTICYCLONIC UNDER THE HIGH FROM 27N TO 30N
AND WEST OF 55W WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS WEST OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE 3 TO 7 FT WEST
OF ABOUT 67W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO LIFT N ON THU WHILE
WEAKENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA ON THU.
GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT, ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N, THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI
NIGHT, WHEN GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO
HISPANIOLA BY FRI MORNING, AND FROM 25N55W TO PUERTO RICO ON SAT.
IN ADDITION, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE FORECAST
REGION COULD BRING GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS
ACROSS THE N WATERS N OF 27N AND E OF 74W SAT THROUGH SUN.
LEWITSKY
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