847
AXNT20 KNHC 050616
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC THU FEB 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNINGS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT:
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON THU IS
GOING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG SW TO NW WINDS OFF
EASTERN FLORIDA AND OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY THU EVENING, THESE WINDS
NEAR 30N76W WILL REACH GALE FORCE, ALONG WITH 9 TO 11 FT SEAS. AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD FRI AND FRI NIGHT, GALE-
FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. PEAK SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO BETWEEN 12 AND
15 FT. THIS AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL
SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD ON SAT, AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTH OF
31N ON SAT NIGHT.
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE:
A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST ON FRI NIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACK
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF WESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W.
SEAS WILL PEAK AT 12 TO 18 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE GOING TO
MOVE EASTWARD, TO NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W ON SUN WITH
SEAS BUILD HIGHER TO BETWEEN 22 AND 29 FT. ONCE THE LOW HAS
PULLED FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY STARTING SUN NIGHT.
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
SEAS AT 12 TO 16 FT IN LARGE NW SWELL, NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF
45W WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THU NIGHT, AND SHIFT
EAST OF 35W BY EARLY FRI MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS ON
ALL THREE EVENTS ABOVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR FREETOWN, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N20W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 03N20W TO 00N38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR BOTH FEATURES FROM 00N TO
05N BETWEEN 10W AND 32W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NORTH OF TAMPICO, MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 150 NM SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE, INCLUDING
NORTHERN FLORIDA. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NNE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO
9 FT ARE SEEN NORTH OF THIS FRONT. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO NW
WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE
THU MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE NW GULF. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MON
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WITH 8
TO 10 FT SEAS ARE SEEN AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO
FRESH E WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FT ARE EVIDENT FOR THE NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS, AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
GENTLE NE TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ON
HAITI..
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF AMERICA, WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE ON THU
MORNING AND WILL MERGE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS
ALONG THE NICARAGUA OFFSHORE WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT, FORECAST TO REACH FROM
EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT AND FROM HAITI TO
PANAMA FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL START TO WEAKEN. FRESH TO STRONG
N WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT, DIMINISHING TO MODERATE TO FRESH
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TWO GALE
WARNINGS AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 30N25W TO 22N50W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO STATIONARY WHILE EXTENDING TO BEYOND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 20W AND 50W, WITH FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ALSO SOUTH OF
27N WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8 FT
OR GREATER ARE NORTH OF A LINE FROM 28N13W TO 20N42W TO THE MONA
PASSAGE AND EAST OF ABOUT 67W.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB IS SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT NEAR 25N25W.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE SOUTH OF 20N WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT
EAST OF FRONT AWAY FROM THE ROUGH SEAS AREA DESCRIBED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. A 1024 MB HIGH IS WEST OF THE FRONT
NEAR 29N63W. WINDS ARE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE AND ANTICYCLONIC
UNDER THE HIGH FROM 27N TO 30N AND WEST OF 55W WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS WEST OF THE
FRONT. SEAS ARE 3 TO 7 FT WEST OF ABOUT 67W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR
SE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT,
THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ON THU WHILE WEAKENING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON THU. PLEASE READ THE
SPECIAL FEATURES FOR GALE WARNINGS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM
NEAR BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA BY FRI MORNING, AND FROM 25N55W TO
PUERTO RICO ON SAT. IN ADDITION, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE BUILDING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST REGION COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE
WINDS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
CHAN
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