907
AXNT20 KNHC 051050
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU FEB 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNINGS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT:
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TODAY IS
GOING TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE SW TO NW
WINDS OFF EASTERN FLORIDA AND OVER THE BAHAMAS. BY THIS EVENING,
THESE WINDS NEAR 30N76W WILL REACH GALE-FORCE, ALONG WITH 9 TO 11
FT SEAS. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD FRI AND FRI
NIGHT, GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. PEAK SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FT. THIS AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD ON SAT, AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD
TO NORTH OF 31N ON SAT NIGHT.
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE:
A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST ON FRI NIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACK
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF WESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W.
SEAS WILL PEAK AT 12 TO 18 FT. THESE WINDS AND SEAS ARE GOING TO
MOVE EASTWARD, TO NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W ON SUN WITH
SEAS BUILD HIGHER TO BETWEEN 22 AND 29 FT. ONCE THE LOW HAS
PULLED FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE STARTING SUN NIGHT.
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
SEAS AT 12 TO 16 FT IN LARGE NW SWELL, NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF
45W WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, AND SHIFT
EAST OF 35W BY EARLY FRI MORNING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS ON
ALL THREE EVENTS ABOVE.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA,
THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 03N19W TO 00N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR BOTH FEATURES FROM 01S TO 07N
BETWEEN 10W AND 33W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CEDAR KEY, FLORIDA TO JUST
NORTH OF TAMPICO, MEXICO. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N TO NNE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS TO 11 FT FOLLOW THIS FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM TAMPICO TO
VERACRUZ, GENERATING SOME SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW WINDS
ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE FAR SE
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE N WIND AND ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH MON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WESTWARD TO THE SE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. A
SURFARCE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CUBA TO THE EASTERN
GULF OF HONDURAS AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS,
INCLUDING THE GRAND CAYMAN ISLANDS. OTHERWISE, A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBROPICAL RIDGE AND THE LOW
PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WHERE SEAS ARE UP TO 9 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE TAIL OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF AMERICA, WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL MERGE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL CUBA TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF E HONDURAS. FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT, FORECAST
TO REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
FROM HAITI TO PANAMA FRI MORNING WHERE IT WILL START TO WEAKEN.
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT, DIMINISHING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TWO GALE
WARNINGS AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N20W TO 25N35W TO 22N48W WHERE IT
STALLS AND THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR SE OFFSHORE WATERS,
TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED BY A
1024 MB HIGH JUST E OF BERMUDA. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE
ONGOING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS AHEAD OF
THE NEW COLD FRONT. WINDS OF SIMILAR SPEED ARE ALONG THE
COLD/STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT N TODAY WHILE WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE
FLORIDA TODAY. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 26N, FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRI EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA BY FRI MORNING, AND FROM 30N55W TO PUERTO
RICO FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT, A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE FORECAST REGION COULD BRING A SECOND
ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS ACROSS THE N
WATERS N OF 25N SAT THROUGH SUN.
RAMOS
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