367
AXNT20 KNHC 172315
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED FEB 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS OVER WEST AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
04.5N15W TO 02S43.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE
WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST
OF THE CAROLINA COAST, SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS
PATTERN IS MAINTAINING GENTLE E BREEZES ACROSS THE BASIN, EXCEPT
FOR MODERATE SE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NORTHERN
TAMAULIPAS. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE BASIN. NO SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE FORECAST, A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA AND A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE U.S. MIDWEST WILL TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE W AND CENTRAL GULF LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO FRESH S RETURN FLOW OVER THOSE
WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, THAT LOW
PRESSURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF ON SAT AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO NEAR GALE N TO NE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND IT
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE ACTIVE OF OFF COLOMBIA.
THE CONVERGENCE OF THESE WINDS IS SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS OFF
EASTERN PANAMA. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL FORCE FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. FRESH NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PULSE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED EVENING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT, WHILE TRADES ELSEWHERE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH. ADDITIONALLY, LARGE N SWELL SHOULD IMPACT THE
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA/MONA PASSAGES BEGINNING
ON THU AND LIKELY DIMINISHING ON SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 25N71W, THEN IS STATIONARY
ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACTIVE WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE FRONT, NORTH OF 24N.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE FROM 22N TO 24N
BETWEEN 62W AND 66W. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT NORTH OF 28.5N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NW TO N WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. BEHIND THE FRONT, SEAS
ARE 8 TO 13 FT PRIMARILY IN N TO NE SWELL NORTH OF 28N, AND 4 TO
8 FT ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 50W. FARTHER EAST, A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REACHES FROM 31N33W TO 27N42W.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST EAST OF 45W, AND NORTH OF 20N,
WITH 5 TO 6 FT SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 6 TO 9 FT
DOMINATE THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 20N. OF NOTE, AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST IS EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF 05N AND EAST OF
30W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM
28N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED MORNING, THEN DISSIPATE BY THU.
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF 29N WILL
PULL NORTH OF OUR WATERS BY THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, LARGE TO VERY LARGE N SWELL WILL OCCUR WITH 12 FT OR
GREATER SEAS SLIDING EASTWARD NORTH OF 28N THROUGH WED NIGHT. 8 FT
SEAS WILL PROGRESS EQUATORWARD REACHING 20N BY THU BEFORE
DIMINISHING ON FRI. WINDS WILL BECOME QUIESCENT OVER FORECAST
WATERS FROM WED THROUGH SAT, AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN
ALONG 27N. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD EMERGE FROM
THE SE UNITED STATES COAST ON SUN, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NW WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS.
KRV
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