095
AXNT20 KNHC 201617
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI FEB 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W AND EXTENDS TO
NEAR 04N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N20W TO 02N30W TO THE COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 04N AND BETWEEN 12W AND 48W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS IS LIFTING SMOKE NORTHWARD FROM AGRICULTURAL
FIRES IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO, PRODUCING HAZY SKIES WEST OF 92W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
BASIN TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS AT THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOCALLY STRONG E TO SE
WINDS WILL PULSE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, EACH AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS DAILY OVER THE REGION. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SHIFT
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY MON, BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS ARE PROBABLE OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE BASIN IS
SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS TO 8 FT ARE FOUND IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
OCCURRING IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF
THE NW CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE BASIN
EVIDENT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1019 MB
ATLANTIC HIGH NEAR 27N56W AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW, WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SAT
NIGHT, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WINDS MAY
REACH NEAR-GALE FORCE EACH NIGHT OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA,
WITH ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED WITHIN AND TO THE WEST OF THESE WINDS.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL
LINGER EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS N SWELL
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE LONG
TERM, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA
THIS WEEKEND AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY MON,
REACHING FROM WESTERN HAITI TO NEAR THE NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA
BORDER TUE MORNING.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF 50W, IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CENTERED ON 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
27N56W. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE REGION. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 31N39W TO 26N54W. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO 35W AND NORTH OF 28N. DECAYING
NW SWELL IS ALSO PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 25W AND 50W AND NORTH OF 20N. SOUTH OF 20N, MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES PREVAIL, WITH ROUGH SEAS PRESENT WEST OF 43W AND
MODERATE SEAS EAST OF 43W. IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF 25N AND NORTH
OF 22N.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 29N AND EAST OF
65W IN N SWELL WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SAT.
ELSEWHERE, 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF BERMUDA WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PRODUCING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SAT EVENING. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
THROUGH SAT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SUN, WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RAPIDLY
BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA MON
MORNING, AND FROM 31N60W TO NORTHWEST HAITI TUE MORNING.
NEPAUL
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