451
AXNT20 KNHC 202316
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT FEB 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SHIFT QUICKLY ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH EARLY MON, BRINGING FRESH TO NEAR-GALE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY
OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ SUN AND SUN NIGHT. BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W AND EXTENDS
TO NEAR 04N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N24W TO 01N35W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED SOUTH OF 05N AND BETWEEN 10W AND 20W, AND S OF 04N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH
TEXAS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN. HOWEVER, A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED NORTH OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF, PARTICULARLY FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W
AND 92W BASED ON THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE 6
TO 8 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS WHILE SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT ELSEWHERE. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS IS LIFTING SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN SE MEXICO
NORTHWARD, PRODUCING HAZY SKIES W OF 92W. IN ADDITION, THE WARMER
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW, MOVING ACROSS THE COOLER COASTAL WATERS
WILL ALSO CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES, FROM THE NE MEXICAN COAST TO SE LOUISIANA TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
THESE COASTAL WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF THROUGH SAT EVENING. LOCALLY STRONG E TO SE WINDS WILL PULSE
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, EACH AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS DAILY OVER THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SHIFT QUICKLY ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH
EARLY MON, BRINGING FRESH TO NEAR-GALE NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE LIKELY OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO
AND VERACRUZ SUN AND SUN NIGHT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND THE
COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAN LOW IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS JUST OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT WITHIN
THE STRONGEST WINDS, AND 5 TO 8 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 18N AND E OF
80W. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE FOUND IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NW CARIBBEAN, WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS NOTED
ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1019 MB ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 27N59W AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW, WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH SAT NIGHT, AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL REACH NEAR-GALE FORCE ALONG WITH ROUGH
SEAS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. FARTHER EAST, ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS N SWELL
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE LONG
TERM, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA
THIS WEEKEND AND ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY MON,
REACHING FROM NEAR HAITI TO NEAR THE NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA BORDER
TUE MORNING. ANTICIPATE RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS BEHIND THIS FRONT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF 50W, IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CENTERED ON 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
NEAR 27N59W. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THAT AREA, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WHERE SEAS
ARE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA SUSTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 11 FT NORTH OF
30N BETWEEN 42W AND 58W. MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE W
OF 50W AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. DECAYING NW SWELL IS PRODUCING ROUGH
SEAS N OF 20N AND E OF 35W. IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE WESTERN
SAHARA DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS AND A TROUGH OVER NW AFRICA.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 29N AND EAST
OF 65W IN N SWELL WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SAT.
ELSEWHERE, A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH SAT EVENING. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON SUN, WITH STRONG TO NEAR-
GALE NW WINDS AND RAPIDLY RISING SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA
TO CENTRAL CUBA MON MORNING, AND FROM 31N60W TO NEAR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TUE MORNING WHILE WEAKENING. IT SHOULD STALL
NEAR THESE LOCATIONS AND DISSIPATE ON WED.
GR
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