925
AXNT20 KNHC 211613
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT FEB 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SHIFT QUICKLY ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH
EARLY MON. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO SUN MORNING AND NEAR THE
COAST OF VERACRUZ SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SEAS IN THESE
AREAS OF WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 TO 14 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM NW TO SE MON THROUGH TUE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: THIS SAME STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE GULF OF AMERICA THIS WEEKEND WILL EXIT THE SE U.S. COAST LATE
SUN MORNING AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. GALE FORCE NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, N OF 29N BETWEEN 80W AND 73W, SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING N OF 31N. SEAS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 15 FT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND WEAKEN BY WED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC, WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON THESE GALE WARNINGS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE EQUATOR WEST OF 30W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT A
GALE WARNING.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
GULF WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 3-6 FT. THE SE RETURN FLOW IS
LIFTING SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL FIRES IN SE MEXICO NORTHWARD,
PRODUCING HAZY SKIES W OF 92W. IN ADDITION, THE WARMER SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW, MOVING ACROSS THE COOLER COASTAL WATERS IS ALSO CAUSING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH LOW VISIBILITIES, FROM
THE NE MEXICAN COAST TO SE LOUISIANA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
TONIGHT. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING AND SHIFT QUICKLY ACROSS THE
BASIN THROUGH EARLY MON, PRODUCING FRESH TO NEAR-GALE NORTHERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS BEHIND IT. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO SUN AND OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ
SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
FROM NW TO SE MON THROUGH TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH, CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC, AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER COLOMBIA IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE
TRADEWINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE WINDS WERE
WELL- SAMPLED BY SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER A COUPLE HOURS AGO. THE
PERSISTENCE OF THESE NEAR-GALE FORCE WIND SPEEDS AND FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS RESULTED
IN 8-11 FT SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN, SEAS ARE 4-7 FT WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES, EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
WHERE TRADES ARE FRESH TO STRONG.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN ATLANTIC RIDGE
ALONG 25N AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN, BEFORE DIMINISHING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN NEAR-GALE FORCE THROUGH TONIGHT OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. FARTHER EAST, ROUGH SEAS
WILL LINGER E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH TONIGHT AS N SWELL
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY MON, THEN EXTEND
FROM NW HAITI TO NEAR THE NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA BORDER TUE
MORNING. EXPECT STRONG N WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS BEHIND
THIS FRONT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT A
GALE WARNING.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC, WITH 1020 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 27N70W AND 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
23N54W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN AT APPROXIMATELY
25N. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
PREVAILS NORTH OF 20N, WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
PREVAILING SOUTH OF 20N. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT ACROSS OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH
S TO SW WINDS OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY SUN. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON
SUN, WITH STRONG TO GALE FORCE NW WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA MON, AND FROM 31N60W TO THE NW
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TUE, WHILE WEAKENING. THE FRONT
WILL STALL AND WEAKEN QUICKLY FROM 29N55W TO THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WED.
MAHONEY
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