353
AXNT20 KNHC 221701
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN FEB 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1640 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: AT 1500 UTC, A STRONG COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY, FLORIDA, TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE ONGOING OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO, MEXICO, AND
SPREADING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT TO OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ,
MEXICO. SEAS ARE ANALYZED TO RANGE FROM 12-14 FT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE VERACRUZ, MEXICO, THROUGH
MON MORNING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12-16 FT OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF, INCLUDING WATERS WITH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM NW TO SE MON MORNING THROUGH
TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF REGION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
W ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: THE SAME STRONG COLD FRONT DESCRIBED
ABOVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF AMERICA RECENTLY EXITED
THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. STRONG TO GALE FORCE
NW WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT
BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MON. SEAS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BUILD TO 12-15 FT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA MON MORNING, AND FROM 31N60W TO
THE NW COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TUE MORNING, WHILE
WEAKENING. WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE ON
MONDAY, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON, WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE
12-15 FT RANGE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THEREAFTER.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE INFORMATION
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS AFRICA NEAR 07N13W AND EXTENDS TO
04N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 05N
BETWEEN 35W AND 45W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT A
GALE WARNING.
AT 1500 UTC, A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY,
FLORIDA, TO VERACRUZ, MEXICO. OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WARNING, STRONG
TO NEAR-GALE FORCE NW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND THE
FRONT, AS DEPICTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER
DATA. SEAS ARE 8-12 FT, LOCALLY TO 13 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF, AND
BUILDING. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NORTHERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT.
GALE- FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO WILL DIMINISH
BY THIS EVENING, WITH GALE- FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM
NW TO SE MON THROUGH TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT E-SE ACROSS THE GULF
TUE THROUGH WED. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE W GULF MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF THU EVENING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETREATS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH TO MAINLY FRESH SPEEDS IN THE
REGION. SEAS REMAIN NEAR 8-10 FT. ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL PER THE LATEST
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA, WITH 4-7 FT SEAS. IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE ANALYZED. A
SUBTLE TROUGH IS ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD PASSAGE,
AND PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER S OF 13N
AND E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL SUBSIDE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM NW HAITI TO NEAR THE NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA BORDER BY TUE
MORNING, THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO SE NICARAGUA MIDWEEK. EXPECT STRONG N WINDS AND RAPIDLY
BUILDING SEAS BEHIND THIS FRONT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT A
THE W ATLANTIC GALE WARNING.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT JUST ENTERED THE FAR NW WATERS AT 1500 UTC,
AND WILL BRING DETERIORATING WINDS AND SEAS TO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TODAY AS DESCRIBED IN THE GALE WARNING SECTION.
ELSEWHERE, 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 26N62W AND 1022
MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 24N49W. THESE TWO HIGHS EXTEND A
LARGE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG 25N, AND SUPPORT MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES SOUTH OF 20N AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
NORTH OF 20N. A SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS THE AFRICAN COAST ALONG
18W. SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE GENERALLY 4-7 FT, EXCEPT SOUTH OF
10N AND WEST OF 40W WHERE SEAS RANGE FROM 8-9 FT IN PATCHES OF
FRESH TRADES.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, STRONG TO GALE FORCE NW WINDS AND
RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
EARLY MON. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO
CENTRAL CUBA MON MORNING, AND FROM 31N60W TO THE NW COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TUE MORNING, WHILE WEAKENING. THE FRONT WILL
STALL FROM 30N55W TO THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY WED,
THEN DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU.
MAHONEY
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