710
AXNT20 KNHC 231749
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON FEB 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA NORTHERLY SWELL:
RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SWELL BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED SOUTHEAST
OF THE GULF EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL SUSTAIN 12 TO 13 FT SEAS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH- CENTRAL GULF, INCLUDING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN CHANNEL UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. AFTERWARD,
SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE NORTHWEST SWELL:
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR BERMUDA
ACROSS 31N65W AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA.
LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THIS FRONT IS GOING TO MAINTAIN 12 TO 16 FT
SEAS NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF 29W THROUGH WED MORNING. AS THE
FRONT WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD WED AFTERNOON, SEAS SHOULD
STEADILY SUBSIDE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE, THEN REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N19W.
AN ITCZ CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 03N19W THROUGH 02N30W
TO NORTH OF BELEM, BRAZIL AT 00N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR BOTH FEATURES FROM 00N TO 04N BETWEEN 50W
AND 15W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
A PROMINENT SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TO NEAR BAY OF CAMPECHE. OUTSIDE THE
SIGNIFICANT SWELL AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION,
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NNE WINDS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 10 FT AT THE WESTERN GULF. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NNE WINDS
AND 7 TO 11 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SE OVERHEAD. FRESH
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW GULF
TUE NIGHT AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL GULF WED INTO THU,
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF THU
EVENING. THIS NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI..
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CENTRAL
CUBA ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN TO BEYOND SOUTHERN BELIZE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT UP TO 50 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER EAST, A SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR JAMAICA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI.
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT ARE PRESENT
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. FRESH NE TO ENE WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BASIN, INCLUDING THE ABC
ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE TO ESE WINDS WITH 3 TO 6 FT
SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
AND REACH FROM NORTHWESTERN HAITI TO NEAR THE NICARAGUA-COSTA
RICA BORDER BY TUE MORNING, THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM CENTRAL
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA WED. EXPECT STRONG N
TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THIS FRONT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC THU AND FRI AND BRING A RETURN TO
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR BERMUDA
ACROSS 31N65W AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND UP TO 50 NM NORTH, AND UP TO 100 NM
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION
AT THE VERY BEGINNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN. OUTSIDE THE AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT SWELL MENTIONED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 6
TO 10 FT ARE EVIDENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG SW WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO 10 FT EXIST NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
56W AND 67W. OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO W TO NW WINDS WITH
5 TO 8 FT SEAS DOMINATE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 52W AND THE
FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. FARTHER EAST, A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
27N46W IS SUPPORTING GENTLE WINDS WITH 8 TO 14 FT SEAS IN LARGE NW
SWELL NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 52W. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
FROM 03N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ARE PRESENT. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN WEST OF 35W, GENTLE TO MODERATE E
TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS MIXED MODERATE SWELLS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N61W TO THE NORTHWEST COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TUE MORNING, WHILE WEAKENING. IT WILL THEN
STALL FROM NEAR 29N55W TO THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY
WED, THEN DRIFT WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED, AND DEVELOP A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THU AND FRI.
CHAN
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