821
AXNT20 KNHC 241031
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE FEB 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WESTERN ATLANTIC:
LARGE NW SWELL HAS BEEN GENERATED BY A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA
(PREVIOUSLY A HURRICANE FORCE LOW AND NOW A STORM FORCE LOW) OVER
THE NW ATLANTIC OFFSHORE OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS NW SWELL
IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NW DISCUSSION WATERS WITH AND BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12-17 FT OVER THE
WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 31N62W TO 26N74W TO 31N77W. THIS LARGE
SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 12 FT AND HIGHER WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N, REACHING AS FAR
EAST AS 50W THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT.
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL CENTRAL ATLANTIC: LARGE NW TO N SWELL,
GENERATED BY A FORMER STORM FORCE LOW NE OF THE AREA (CURRENTLY A
GALE FORCE LOW) IS BRINGING VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12-18 FT OVER THE
WATERS N OF A LINE FROM 31N48W TO 26N48W TO 25N40W TO 30N30W.
THIS SWELL WILL SHIFT S AND SE THROUGH MIDWEEK TO COVER THE
WATERS N OF 16N AND E OF 45W THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING
BELOW 12 FT WED AFTERNOON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11.5N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
04N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N19W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
01.5S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 03N BETWEEN
06W AND 51W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS, BEHIND THE RECENT COLD FRONT,
RESULTING IN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS TO 12 FT IN N SWELL EAST OF 90W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL ARE FOUND ACROSS THE
SW GULF AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THE DRY AND COLD
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF 26N, WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL NORTH OF 26N. MOISTURE BANKING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANKS
OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E-SE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY WED. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW GULF TUE NIGHT AND EXPAND ACROSS
THE SW AND CENTRAL GULF WED INTO THU, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF THU NIGHT. THIS NEXT FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL MEXICAN
COASTAL WATERS SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW HAITI THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO
THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR
THE FRONT. MOISTURE BANKING AGAINST THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN
CENTRAL AMERICA MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
HONDURAS, GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SOME SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS TO 12 FT ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PRESENT IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SOUTH OF 15N. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT NORTH OF 15N.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING NORTH-CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO SE NICARAGUA TUE AFTERNOON,
BEFORE STALLING ON WED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO NEAR THE
NICARAGUA- COSTA RICA BORDER. THE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC WED THROUGH FRI AND BRING A RETURN TO FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR 31N60W AND CONTINUES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NW COAST OF HAITI THEN THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. STRONG NW WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
IN NW SWELL ARE N OF 25N AND W OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW
TO N WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF THE
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SEAS ARE N OF 26N AND E OF
THE FRONT TO 53W. FARTHER EAST, A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
31N41W AND EXTEND A RIDGE TO NEAR 23N65W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
PREVAIL S OF 23N TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGH CENTER, DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN NW TO
N SWELL. W OF THE RIDGE, STRONG S TO SW WINDS PREVAIL N OF 25N
BETWEEN 53W AND THE COLD FRONT, WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 12 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, WITH MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, STRONG NW WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS
IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING
BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN, REACHING FROM 31N58W TO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TUE EVENING, THEN STALL
FROM NEAR 29N55W TO THE NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WED, BEFORE DRIFTING
W AND DISSIPATING THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED, AND DEVELOP A BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION THU THROUGH SAT.
STRIPLING
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