229
AXNT20 KNHC 241817
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC TUE FEB 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
LARGE NW SWELL GENERATED BY A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA, CANADA WILL MAINTAIN VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 17 FT FROM
25N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 75W THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT ON WED AFTERNOON.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
LARGE NW TO N SWELL GENERATED BY A STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AZORES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSING 12 TO 18-FT SEAS FROM 22N TO
30N BETWEEN 22W AND 48W THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH STAYS MOSTLY OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. AN ITCZ
EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 01N17W THROUGH 01N30W TO JUST
NORTH OF SAO LUIS, BRAZIL NEAR 01S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN UP TO 110 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 27W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF. GENTLE NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO
7 FT IN MODERATE NE SWELL ARE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND SEAS
AT 5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF, INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE DRY AND COLD CONTINENTAL AIRMASS MOVING
ACROSS THE BASIN SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF
26N, WHILE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL NORTH OF 26N. MOISTURE
BANKING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANKS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MAY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR THE FORECAST, RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
FROM THE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF WED INTO THU, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THU NIGHT. THIS NEXT FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL
MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS SAT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE SOUTHWESTERN TAIL OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING UP TO 80 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE
BANKING AGAINST THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AMERICA MAY
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS HONDURAS, GUATEMALA AND
BELIZE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS NEAR PUERTO
RICO. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE
EVIDENT BEHIND THE FRONT, INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
FRESH WITH LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF, INCLUDING WATERS NEAR THE ABC
ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AT 3 TO 5 FT
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING NORTH-CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE STALLING ON WED FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO NEAR
THE NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA BORDER. THE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS THE
FRONT WEAKENS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WED THROUGH SAT, AND BRING A RETURN TO FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. MEANWHILE, ROUGH SEAS
IN MIXED NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
SIGNIFICANT SWELLS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM WELL NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA ACROSS 31N58W TO BEYOND CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN UP TO 100 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS ARE TRIGGERING SCATTERED
HEAVY SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF BELEM, BRAZIL. REFER TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND WEATHER IN
THE ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W.
OUTSIDE THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL AREA MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION, FRESH TO STRONG SSW TO NW WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT
SEAS ARE PRESENT NEAR THE COLD FRONT, NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND
THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST. TO THE SOUTH FROM 29N TO 25N
AND FARTHER EAST FROM 25N TO 31N, GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SE
WINDS AND 7 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE EVIDENT. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
FROM 03N TO 25N AND WEST OF 35W, MODERATE TO FRESH ENE TO SE
WINDS WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT DOMINATE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND 6 TO 8
FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH VERY
ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN, REACHING FROM
31N58W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS
EVENING, THEN STALL FROM NEAR 29N55W TO THE NORTHEASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WED, BEFORE DRIFTING WEST AND DISSIPATING THU.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT THROUGH WED, AND DEVELOP A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION
THU THROUGH SAT. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH MID-WEEK, LINGERING TO ROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FARTHER EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
CHAN
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