585
AXNT20 KNHC 242112
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED FEB 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS IS SUPPORTING
VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF A LINE FROM
28N73W TO 26N68W TO 30N55W. THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD THROUGH WED, REACHING THE WATERS NEAR 45W BEFORE
SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS
IS SUPPORTING VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF
A LINE FROM 20N41W TO 30N22W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS N OF
20N THROUGH MIDWEEK. VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER OVER THESE FAR
EASTERN WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH STAYS MOSTLY OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 02N15W TO 02N25W TO 01S44W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01S
TO 03N BETWEEN 27W AND 43W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS, ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. LIGHT WINDS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE IN THE GENTLE
TO MODERATE RANGE. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE SE OF A LINE FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF, AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, ROUGH SEAS IN THE FAR SE GULF AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND
EXPAND ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL GULF WED INTO THU, AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF THU NIGHT. THIS NEXT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE
CENTRAL MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS SAT, DISSIPATING BY SUN AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW HAITI TO NE NICARAGUA. BEHIND
THE FRONT, STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, WITH SEAS IN THE 6-7 FT
RANGE. ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 3-5 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND
SUBSIDE TONIGHT THROUGH WED AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WED
THROUGH SAT AND BRING A RETURN TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE, ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SWELL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N57W
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE N-CENTRAL COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE N OF 29N AND WEST OF THE FRONT TO 70W.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS IN NW TO N SWELL IS BEHIND THE FRONT. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS ARE N OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. FARTHER
EAST, A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE WATERS NEAR 31N19W AND EXTENDS TO
27N28W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY
HIGH PRESSURE, ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N40W.
LIGHT WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
ASIDE FROM THE VERY ROUGH SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER DISCUSSED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE, ROUGH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT COVER
THE MUCH OF THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM THE SE BAHAMAS TO 27N55W.
ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO E OF 55W TO A LINE FROM 00N44W TO 31N20W.
ELSEWHERE MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, STALLING FROM NEAR
29N55W TO THE NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WED, BEFORE DRIFTING W AND
DISSIPATING THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WED, AND DEVELOP A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE REGION THU THROUGH SAT. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH MID-WEEK, LINGERING TO ROUGH OVER THE SE WATERS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AL
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