789
AXNT20 KNHC 250322
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC WED FEB 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS IS SUPPORTING
VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF A LINE FROM
31N71W TO 25N63W TO 31N51W. THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD THROUGH WED, REACHING THE WATERS NEAR 45W BEFORE
SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
LARGE N-NW SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS
IS SUPPORTING VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT WITHIN 31N37W TO
17N44W AND TO 31N17W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 20N
THROUGH MIDWEEK. VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL LINGER OVER THESE FAR
EASTERN WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N24W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N24W TO 00N33W AND TO 02S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 04N AND BETWEEN
30W AND 44W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
WESTERN FLORIDA AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS SUPPORT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FROM
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO VERACRUZ. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE WESTERN COAST OF YUCATAN. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, IN THE WAKE OF THE
RECENT COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND
EXPAND ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL GULF WED INTO THU, AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF THU NIGHT. THIS NEXT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE
CENTRAL MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS SAT, THEN DISSIPATE BY SUN AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO COSTA RICA AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA
AND LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUSTAIN
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE WITHIN 250 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 7-10 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE AND DIMINISH TONIGHT
THROUGH WED AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WED THROUGH SAT AND BRING
A RETURN TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
MEANWHILE, ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL IN THE
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SWELL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO HISPANIOLA. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG S-SW
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO 50W AND NORTH OF 28N. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF THE FRONT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR WESTERN FLORIDA, SUPPORTING MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS.
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND WESTERN AFRICA FORCES MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN,
STALLING FROM NEAR 29N55W TO THE NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WED, BEFORE
DRIFTING W AND DISSIPATING THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH WED, AND DEVELOP A
BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THU THROUGH SAT. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN JUST N
OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE, SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU,
LINGERING TO AROUND 8 FT OVER THE SE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
DELGADO
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