450
AXNT20 KNHC 251050
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED FEB 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS IS SUPPORTING
VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF A LINE FROM
31N50W TO 24N64W TO 31N65W. THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 FT AND
HIGHER WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THU, REACHING THE
WATERS AS FAR S AS 22N AND AS FAR E AS 45W TODAY, BEFORE
SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT TONIGHT.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
LARGE N-NW SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS
IS MERGING WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC, WHICH IS SUPPORTING VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT FROM
16N TO 26N AND E OF 44W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS S
OF 25N THROUGH THU, BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 12 FT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY ROUGH SEAS TO NEAR 12 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THESE FAR EASTERN WATERS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11.5N15.5W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
02N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N21W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
02.5S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED SOUTH OF 06N AND BETWEEN 05W AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 02N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE OF THE SW COAST OF
FLORIDA AND EXTENDS A RIDGE W-SW TO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER MEXICO AND
TEXAS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO VERACRUZ.
PEAK SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 7 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4
FT ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WESTERN COAST OF YUCATAN.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E-NE ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL
PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF
TODAY AND WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING
INTO THU, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW
GULF THU NIGHT. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE GULF FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT
AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO NEAR THE COSTA RICA-PANAMS BORDER. A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY, SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA AND LOWER PRESSURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 7-10
FT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE
SOUTH- CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY WHILE
THE STRONG WINDS VEER NE TO E AND DIMINISH THROUGH WED EVENING.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC WED THROUGH SAT AND BRING A RETURN TO FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE, ROUGH SEAS IN
MIXED NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SWELL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG S-SW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 16 FT IN NW
SWELL ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 50W AND NORTH OF 28N.
BEHIND THE FRONT, 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF
THE NW BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS A RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE FRONT. MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 24N AND WEST
OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SW NORTH ATLANTIC IS SEEING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN NW TO N SWELL TO THE W OF 67W.
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND WESTERN AFRICA FORCES MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN,
STALLING FROM NEAR 29N55W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY, BEFORE
DRIFTING W AND DISSIPATING THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THROUGH THU, AND
DEVELOP A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL SAT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST
SAT AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN.
MEANWHILE, SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU NIGHT, WHILE
SEAS LINGER AROUND 8 FT OVER THE SE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
STRIPLING
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