860
AXNT20 KNHC 251739
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED FEB 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS IS SUPPORTING
VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF 27N AND
BETWEEN 46W AND 62W . THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 FT AND HIGHER
WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THU, REACHING THE WATERS AS
FAR S AS 22N AND AS FAR E AS 45W TODAY, BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 12
FT TONIGHT.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL:
LARGE N-NW SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS
IS MERGING WITH EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC, WHICH IS SUPPORTING VERY ROUGH SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT FROM
16N TO 20N AND E OF 40W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS S
OF 25N THROUGH THU, BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 12 FT BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. VERY ROUGH SEAS TO NEAR 12 FT WILL LINGER OVER
THESE FAR EASTERN WATERS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N20W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 06N AND
BETWEEN 05W AND 14W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE OF THE SW COAST OF
FLORIDA AND EXTENDS A RIDGE W-SW TO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER MEXICO AND
TEXAS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO VERACRUZ.
PEAK SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 7 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4
FT ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WESTERN COAST OF YUCATAN.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT
E-NE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL
GULF THIS EVENING INTO THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO ENTER THE NW GULF THU NIGHT. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE GULF FRI
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO NEAR THE COSTA RICA-PANAMS BORDER. NO PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA AND LOWER
PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUSTAIN FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE FRONT. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING WITHIN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 7-10 FT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE SOUTH- CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
PREVAIL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 84W. THE FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY WHILE THE STRONG WINDS VEER NE TO E AND
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WED THROUGH SAT AND BRING
A RETURN TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
MEANWHILE, ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL IN THE
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
SIGNIFICANT SWELL IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SWELL IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE DISSIPATED,
HOWEVER, ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL CONTINUE TO
50W, NORTH OF 28N. BEHIND THE FRONT, 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS A RIDGE EASTWARD
TO THE FRONT. A RECENT ASCAT PASS NOTED MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH
ATLANTIC IS SEEING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS IN NW TO N SWELL TO THE E OF 65W.
THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF OUR
WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND WESTERN AFRICA FORCES MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 15
FT IN NW SWELL PREVAIL BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE BAHAMAS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM NEAR 29N55W TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TODAY, BEFORE DRIFTING W AND DISSIPATING THU. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEHIND THE
FRONT TODAY THROUGH THU, AND DEVELOP A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL SAT. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SAT AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU NIGHT,
WITH SEAS LINGERING AROUND 8 FT OVER THE SE WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
MORA
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