306
AXNT20 KNHC 252315
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU FEB 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS IS
SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT E OF 72W. THESE ROUGH SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU NIGHT, WITH SEAS LINGERING
AROUND 8 FT OVER THE SE WATERS, PARTICULARLY SE OF A LINE FROM
28N51W TO 21N66W TO 19N64W.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS
IS SUPPORTING VERY ROUGH SEAS. AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATES SEAS
OF 10 TO 16 FT N OF 22N AND E OF 20W AFFECTING THE MADEIRA AND
CANARY ISLANDS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT E OF 35W
BY THU MORNING, BUT ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL PERSIST INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N11W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N20W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 06N AND
BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFFSHORE OF THE SW COAST OF
FLORIDA AND EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER MEXICO AND
TEXAS SUPPORTS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT OVER
THE NW WATERS, AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE TO S WINDS DOMINATE THE EASTERN GULF WITH SEAS OF 2 TO
4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SW AND
CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING INTO THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF THU NIGHT. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
GULF FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN
LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA. FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE
IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA WHILE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES DOMINATE
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN THESE WATERS. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT. THE SOUTHERN END OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA, GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS, ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE, MORE CONCENTRATED OVER NE HONDURAS, EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH SAT AND BRING A RETURN TO
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE,
ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL
N ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N50W TO 26N58W WHERE IT BECOMES A
STATIONARY FRONT TO HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTH END OF
THE FRONT AFFECTING HISPANIOLA, AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AN AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS IS NOTED
FROM 22N TO 25N W OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 68W BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL FOLLOW
THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N32W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE
DEEP TROPICS AND WESTERN AFRICA FORCES MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 13
FT IN NW SWELL PREVAIL BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE BAHAMAS. THE
FRONT WILL DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THU, AND
DEVELOP A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL SAT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST
SAT AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU NIGHT, WITH SEAS LINGERING
AROUND 8 FT OVER THE SE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GR
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