479
AXNT20 KNHC 261032
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC THU FEB 26 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1020 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
LARGE NW SWELL PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS E
OF 65W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER DATA AND
SOFAR OCEAN DRIFTING BUOYS SHOW THAT PEAK SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS EVENT HAVE LOWERED TO 10-12 FT, AND ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
OPEN WATERS N OF 06N AND E OF 50W. SEAS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT THIS MORNING, AND IN GENERAL WILL
SUBSIDE MODESTLY FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
HOWEVER, A STRONG AND BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ASSOCIATED RIDGE
WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS FROM NEAR
THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC, AND
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF SEAS 12 FT AND HIGHER THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA NEAR 10.5N14.5W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 06N18.5W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N18.5W TO 02N23W AND TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
WITHIN 120 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, S OF
05N BETWEEN 07W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS, SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE NW AND N
CENTRAL GULF. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE SEEN FROM NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW HALF
OF THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW
GULF EARLY FRI. THIS NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE GULF FRI THROUGH SAT
NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE GULF WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE BASIN SUN AND MON.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS HAITI AND PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD AND
DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, FRESHENING TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN E OF 80W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE REMNANTS OF THE
DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
NEAR THE COASTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURES IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUSTAIN STRONG NE
TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 80W,
INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE TO THE W, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE BASIN WILL
SHIFT NE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY SAT AND MAINTAIN A
BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC, BRINGING A
RETURN TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE, ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED SWELL WILL PREVAIL IN
THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
THE SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N50W TO NEAR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS, AND HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT WESTWARD N OF HISPANIOLA
IN RECENT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF THIS
BOUNDARY, AND THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF THE FRONT TO THE NE OF BERMUDA AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS S FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE GULF
OF AMERICA. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT IN
N TO NE SWELL SOUTH OF 25N AND WEST OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE N OF
25N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 70W, GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS PREVAIL WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXPANSIVE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED SW
OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N31W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND WESTERN AFRICA
FORCES MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS OF
8 TO 12 FT IN NW TO N SWELL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA E OF THE FRONT
FROM 70W TO 30W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE NW TO N SWELL DOMINATING THE
REGIONAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THU NIGHT. HOWEVER
SEAS OVER THE SE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 8 FT AND
HIGHER IN EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE N
OF THE FRONT SHIFTS NE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, PRODUCING A
BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
UNTIL SAT. A WEAK FRONT WILL SHIFT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST EARLY SAT
AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE WATERS W OF
65W THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING.
STRIPLING
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