071
AXNT20 KNHC 262303
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI FEB 27 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING EAST OF 35W: METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING
FOR THE CANARIAS OFFSHORE ZONE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR N TO NE
WINDS TO FORCE 8 ON THE BEAUFORT WIND SCALE, WITH SEVERE GUSTS
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST 28/0000 UTC. SEAS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 12 TO 14 FT BASED ON A RECENT ALTIMETER
PASS. FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHES/2
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: SEAS REMAIN
8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS ALL CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS EAST OF 60W BASED ON SEVERAL ALTIMETER PASSES. ONE OF THEM,
SHOWS SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT N OF 14N AND E OF 20W. ANOTHER SWELL
EVENT WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL REACH THE MADEIRA AND CANARY
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS,
WITH SURGES TO NEAR-GALE FORCE, WILL SUSTAIN 8 TO 11 FT SEAS
ELSEWHERE, AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES SW TO
THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN
05W AND 20W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE GULF OF AMERICA, AND PROVIDES FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SE TO S WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE
NW GULF, AND 4 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1 TO 3 FT
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, AND OFFSHORE FLORIDA S OF 29N.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WEST
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE
NW GULF EARLY FRI. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE GULF FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT
AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE GULF WILL BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE BASIN SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW
SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. SEAS
ARE 8 TO 9 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE MAINLY
MODERATE SE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW PART
OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE LOCALLY HIGHER, TO 8 TO 9 FT, WITHIN
ATLANTIC PASSAGE BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE MONA
PASSAGE, DUE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL FROM THE ATLANTIC.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N
OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL. ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED SWELL
WILL PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT E OF 35W, AND A SIGNIFICANT SWELL
EVENT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE WATERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS WITH
A 1033 MB CENTER LOCATED W OF THE AZORES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS SYSTEM, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED
ACROSS MOST THE WATERS E OF 60W WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS W
OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH, REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ANALYZED FROM 28N62W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL DOMINATE
THE WATERS S OF A LINE FROM 31N62W TO 22N72W TO 19N68W. SEAS OF
4 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRI. THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF THE ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THU NIGHT, WITH A SMALLER AREA OF ROUGH SEAS
CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT WILL SHIFT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST EARLY SAT
AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE WATERS W OF
65W THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING.
GR
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