640
AXNT20 KNHC 271838
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI FEB 27 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING EAST OF 35W:
METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE CANARIAS MARINE
ZONE AT LEAST THROUGH 28/1200 UTC, AND FOR AGADIR AND TARFAYA
MARINE ZONES FROM 27/18Z TO 28/12Z.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHES/2
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A ROBUST
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE AZORES IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. WIND WAVES
GENERATED BY THESE WINDS ALONG WITH RESIDUAL N SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO CREATE 12 TO 14 FT SEAS FROM 17N TO 28N BETWEEN 17W AND 35W.
THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA
NORTH OF CONAKRY, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N20W. AN ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 04N20W ACROSS 00N30W TO NEAR FORTALEZA, BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM
00N TO 06N AND EAST OF 27W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR THE
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN AT THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF.
OTHERWISE, A SURFACE RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REST
OF THE GULF. MODERATE S WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT DOMINATE THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO
SW WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL PREVIAL
FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE GULF WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE BASIN THIS
MORNING, SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE GULF WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE BASIN SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUSTAINS FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
AND 8 TO 10 FT SEAS AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY BREEZES AND 6 TO 8 FT ARE NOTED AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO ESE WINDS WITH 3 TO 6 FT
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A ROAD CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF AMERICA. MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
APPROACHING THE NW GULF. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE BASIN THIS
MORNING, SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE BASIN SUN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR A GALE WARNING IS AT
THE NORTHWEST FIND.
A ROBUST 1037 MB AZORES HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SSYTHEMTHE AZORES
EXTENDS TO THE BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND WEST OF 75W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP
TROPICS AND WESTERN AFRICA RESULT IN FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE GENERAL WEATHER
PATTERN WHILE ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE SE WATERS. A WEAK FRONT
WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST EARLY SAT, AND MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 65W THROUGH
SUN NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT
NORTH OF 27N. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF
THE BASIN.
CHAN
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