284
AXNT20 KNHC 272322
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT FEB 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING EAST OF 35W: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE CANARIAS AND AGADIR MARINE ZONES OF METEO FRANCE. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR NE WINDS TO FORCE 8 ON THE BEAUFORT WIND
SCALE, WITH SEVERE GUSTS BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST 01/0000 UTC. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 9 TO 13 FT N OF 10N
AND E OF 30W BASED ON A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. HIGHER SEAS OF 12
TO 15 FT ARE POSSIBLE JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY
METEO-FRANCE AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHES/2
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A ROBUST
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE AZORES IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THESE WINDS ALONG WITH RESIDUAL NW SWELL
CONTINUE TO CREATE SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W BASED ON SEVERAL ALTIMETER PASSES. THIS SWELL
EVENT, WITH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 12 FT RANGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 04N20W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 04S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 00N TO 06N E OF 30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY, FLORIDA SOUTHWESTWARD
TO 28N93W AND TO INLAND SOUTH TEXAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY A RATHER BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SHIFTING
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
MAINLY E OF 90W. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE WHILE LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
REGION. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL 2 TO 4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS
IT SHIFTS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
BASIN INTO SAT, AND TO EAST OF THE BASIN SAT NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
AREA FROM THE N ATLANTIC BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT, WITH THE RELATED
GRADIENT GENERALLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN
LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT WITH THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WHILE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS
ARE NOTED OVER THE NW PART OF THE BASIN. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE
NOTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES IN THE NE CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN WILL INITIATE GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF
COLOMBIA AT NIGHT MON THROUGH WED, AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN. ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED SWELL WILL PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SEAS TO 12 FT POSSIBLY
NEAR 55W.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT E OF 35W. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035 MB, LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES,
EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND WESTERN AFRICA RESULT IN
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG S TO SW
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OBSERVED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE N OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND E OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A WEAK FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST EARLY ON SAT, AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 65W THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKEN. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST
BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT NORTH OF 27N ALONG
WITH SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT NEAR 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 67W. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN.
GR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page