062
AXNT20 KNHC 281007
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT FEB 28 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0955 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING EAST OF 35W: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE CANARIAS AND AGADIR MARINE ZONES OF METEO FRANCE. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR NE WINDS TO FORCE 8 ON THE BEAUFORT WIND
SCALE, WITH SEVERE GUSTS BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST 01/0000 UTC. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 9 TO 13 FT N OF 10N
AND E OF 30W BASED ON A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. HIGHER SEAS OF 12
TO 15 FT ARE POSSIBLE JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHES/2
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A ROBUST
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE AZORES IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS BETWEEN 20W
AND 60W, WITH HIGHEST SEAS E OF 40W. THIS EVENT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE DRIFTING SW.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N14W, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N18W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N18W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 04S38W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 06N AND EAST OF
30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO A
1013 MB LOW PRES NEAR 27N87W AND THEN TO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED IN THE SE GULF
WATERS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES THE GULF, RESULTING IN
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN. THE WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXIT THE BASIN TONIGHT. LATER, A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE N ATLANTIC BEGINNING ON SUN NIGHT, WITH THE RELATED GRADIENT
GENERALLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT OFF N
YUCATAN TUE AND WED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COMBINES WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW TO SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT
WITH THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS
DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WHILE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E
TO SE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OVER THE NW PART OF THE
BASIN. SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INITIATE GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA AT NIGHT MON THROUGH AT LEAST
LATE NEXT WEEK AND SUPPORT LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. IN THE MEANTIME, ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED SWELL
WILL PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH SEAS TO 12 FT REACHING 55W MON. ELSEWHERE, LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT E OF 35W. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT HAS EXITED THE COAST OFF NE FLORIDA,
SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 75W
AND N OF 27N. MEANWHILE, A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDS AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND WESTERN AFRICA
RESULT IN FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF
20N AND BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE WATERS W OF
65W THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER MUCH
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE SE
WATERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKEN. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS, PEAKING AROUND 14 FT, ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT
MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT NORTH OF 27N. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN.
DELGADO
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