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AXNT20 KNHC 010426
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN MAR 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035 MB LOCATED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR
33N36W IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ACROSS MOST OF
THE WATERS BETWEEN 20W AND 60W, WITH HIGHEST SEAS E OF 45W. THIS
SWELL EVENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N16W, THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N18W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N18W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S36W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N86W, WITH STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 27N82W. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS
ALONG THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE, SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ANCHORED BY A
1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N89W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS
ARE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL 1 TO 3 FT, HIGHEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT TONIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, EXITING THE BASIN
TONIGHT. AFTERWARD, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE AREA FROM THE N ATLANTIC BEGINNING ON SUN
NIGHT, WITH THE RELATED GRADIENT GENERALLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. STRONG WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT NIGHT OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE THROUGH THU.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE COLOMBIAN
LOW SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND
THE NORTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE BASIN WITH MODERATE SEAS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE, EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN PRODUCING SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INITIATE GALE-FORCE
WINDS OFF COLOMBIA AT NIGHT MON THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK
AND SUPPORT LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE BASIN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL BEGIN IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE STARTING LATE MON NIGHT. ROUGH
SEAS IN MIXED SWELL WILL PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SEAS TO 12 FT REACHING 55W MON.
ELSEWHERE, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BETWEEN 70W-76W. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1035 MB
SITUATED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N36W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC, PARTICULARLY E OF 50W, WITH ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE
TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING FROM NEAR 31N76W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND TO
SOUTH FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE SE WATERS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN. FRESH TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS,
PEAKING TO AROUND 14 FT, ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT MON THROUGH
TUE NIGHT NORTH OF 27N. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY ABATE
STARTING THU.
ERA
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