386
AXNT20 KNHC 010949
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SUN MAR 1 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0925 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INITIATE
GALE-FORCE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA AT NIGHT STARTING MON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE WINDS.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1033 MB LOCATED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N38W IS
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS
BETWEEN 20W AND 60W, WITH HIGHEST SEAS E OF 50W. THIS SWELL EVENT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N18W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N18W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 04S38W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
SOUTH OF 08N AND BETWEEN AFRICA AND 44W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS,
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTS MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF THIS MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
TRANSITION TO A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING, SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXIT THE BASIN. AFTERWARD, A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE N ATLANTIC BEGINNING TONIGHT, WITH THE RELATED GRADIENT
GENERALLY SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT OFF THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA, SUPPORTING STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY BREEZES AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE SE CARIBBEAN.
ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
EVIDENT IN THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADES AND MODERATE
TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INITIATE GALE-
FORCE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA AT NIGHT MON THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS
WEEK AND SUPPORT LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE STARTING LATE
MON NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED SWELL WILL PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL
N ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SEAS TO 12 FT
REACHING 55W MON. ELSEWHERE, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 31N74W TO SE FLORIDA. A
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BETWEEN 67W-78W. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1033 MB SITUATED
SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N38W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC,
PARTICULARLY E OF 60W, WITH ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
REACHING FROM NEAR 31N69W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FROM
31N62W TO THE SE BAHAMAS MON MORNING AS IT WEAKENS. ELSEWHERE,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL OVER
THE SE WATERS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN.
FRESH TO NEAR GALE- FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS, PEAKING TO AROUND 13 FT, ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT MON
THROUGH TUE NIGHT NORTH OF 27N. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN.
DELGADO
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