341
AXNT20 KNHC 012057
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC MON MAR 2 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT STRONG
TO NEAR GALE- FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE OVER
THESE WATERS AT NIGHT WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW. LOCALLY VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
WINDS.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A PREVIOUS
GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OFF THE CANARY ISLANDS GENERATED A LARGE NE
SWELL WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT. THE SWELL HAS
PROPAGATED FROM THIS SOURCE REGION, WITH THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS
CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 33W AND 50W.
THE SEAS, CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 14 FT, ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
AND WILL DECREASE BELOW 12 FT BY TUE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N19W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 03N19W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 04S38W. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 06N
BETWEEN 10W AND 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS WESTWARD TO
25N84W AND TO NEAR 24N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY. WINDS OVER THE GULF ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER, WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXIT THE BASIN TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING DIFFUSE.
AFTERWARD, AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL N ATLANTIC OVER THE AREA
STARTING TONIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. ITS RELATED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT
OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR PULSING GALES IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH CENTER
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS N OF THE
AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE E
OF 80W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS
ARE IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND
6-8 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 80W. W OF 80W, SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL
SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE- FORCE TRADES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE- FORCE AT NIGHT OVER THESE WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BEGIN IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE MON NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG EAST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS STARTING WED
NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED SWELL WILL PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SEAS TO 12 FT REACHING
55W MON. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO JUST BELOW 12 FT ON WED, THEN
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ELSEWHERE, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED, WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON SIGNIFICANT SWELL.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR 31N70W TO
THE NW BAHAMAS AND TO THE FLORIDA KEYS WHILE A TROUGH AHEAD OF IT
EXTENDS FROM 28N72W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TO NEAR
EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EVIDENT WITHIN 60 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITHIN
30 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 27N. TO THE EAST, NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NORTH OF 26N AND EAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TROUGH TO A LINE FROM 31N64W TO 26N70W.
FARTHER EAST, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES, ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 32N38W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH
CENTER AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING FRESH TO TRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS S OF 27N
AND E OF 55W. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE OVER THESE WATERS.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING FROM NEAR 31N67W TO
28N70W AND STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT, AND FROM
NEAR 31N62W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY ON MON AS IT BECOMES
DIFFUSE. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WHILE ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKEN. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS, PEAKING TO AROUND 13 FT, ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT
MON THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT NORTH OF 27N. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN.
AL
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