803
AXNT20 KNHC 021747
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC MON MAR 2 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE-FORCE
OVER THESE WATERS AT NIGHT WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A PREVIOUS
GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OFF THE CANARY ISLANDS GENERATED A LARGE NE
SWELL WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT. THE SWELL HAS
PROPAGATED FROM THIS SOURCE REGION, WITH THESE VERY ROUGH SEAS
CURRENTLY OVER THE WATERS FROM 08N TO 23N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W.
THE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, CURRENTLY PEAKING NEAR 12-13 FT,
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ROUGH
SEAS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER
THIS WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
05N09W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 01N13W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM THAT POINT TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 03S40W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 10N AND E OF 40W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 86W.
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE EAST OF THE TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL BASIN-WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF, EXCEPT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WHERE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR NOCTURNALLY OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA STARTING TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE REGARDING A GALE WARNING
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SURFACE RIDGING FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E CONUS AND
ALSO THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN, THUS
SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS IN
THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA. SEAS IN THE REGIONS OF HIGHEST WINDS ARE
MODERATE, EXCEPT FOR ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE TRADES ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL PULSE TO GALE-FORCE
DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE LEE OF CUBA AT NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNINGS ALSO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PULSE AT NIGHT FROM THU THROUGH SAT.
ELSEWHERE, ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN WIND GENERATED EAST SWELL
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A SIGNIFICANT
SWELL EVENT.
A STRONG AZORES HIGH EXTENDING A RIDGE INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL
WATERS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA
ALL THE WAY TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 27N.
NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS, A COLD FRONT BRINGS FRESH TO
STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL. LASTLY, A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO NEAR 26N73W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH TO ABOUT 57W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS
FOLLOW THE FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT THROUGH TUE NIGHT NORTH OF 27N. AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN.
ADAMS
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