408
AXNT20 KNHC 030508
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE MAR 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE-FORCE
OVER THESE WATERS AT NIGHT WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: A PREVIOUS
GALE FORCE WIND EVENT OFF THE CANARY ISLANDS GENERATED A LARGE NE
SWELL WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 13 FT. THE SWELL HAS PROPAGATED
FROM THIS SOURCE REGION, WITH THE VERY ROUGH SEAS CURRENTLY OVER
THE WATERS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. THESE SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ROUGH SEAS
ARE THEN FORECAST TO SUBSIDE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS
WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 05N08W TO 02N13W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 06S35W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 04N AND E OF 35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 87W WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR IT. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS
ARE EAST OF THE TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE N CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE GULF, EXCEPT IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WHERE WINDS WILL BE MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR NOCTURNALLY OFF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA STARTING TUE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE REGARDING A GALE WARNING
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SURFACE RIDGING FROM STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA
WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR-GALE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS IN THE LEE SIDE
OF CUBA. SEAS IN THE REGIONS OF HIGHEST WINDS ARE MODERATE, EXCEPT
FOR ROUGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND NEAR NE AND E
CARIBBEAN- ATLANTIC PASSAGES.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE TRADES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL
PULSE TO GALE-FORCE DURING THE NOCTURNAL HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO PULSE AT NIGHT FROM THU THROUGH SAT. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS IN WIND GENERATED EAST SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON THU.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON A SIGNIFICANT
SWELL EVENT.
A STRONG AZORES HIGH EXTENDING A RIDGE INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL
WATERS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA
ALL THE WAY TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 27N.
NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS, A COLD FRONT BRINGS FRESH TO
STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL. LASTLY, A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 27N71W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ALONG AND E OF THE
FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FOLLOW THE
FRONT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE TUE EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALONG
WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TUE
NIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL LINGER INTO WED WHILE EXPANDING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND MERGING WITH SIMILAR SEAS SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF
BAHAMAS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN N ATLANTIC THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE CONTROLLING THE GENERAL FLOW WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS CONFINED TO MOSTLY SOUTH
OF 25N.
ERA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page