512
AXNT20 KNHC 140555
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT MAR 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING:
METEO-FRANCE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THEIR CANARIAS MARINE ZONE
UNTIL 14/09Z. PLEASE VISIT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/DISPLAY/2 FOR MORE
DETAIL.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N19W. AN
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N19W ACROSS 00N26W TO 03S30W, THEN TURNS
WESTWARD TO EAST OF SAO LUIS, BRAZIL AT 02S42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 07S TO
02N BETWEEN 17W AND 37W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CAPE SABLE IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO BEYOND CANCUN, MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 100 NM SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA IS TRIGGERING
SIMILAR WEATHER NEAR TAMPA, FLORIDA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO SE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT ARE PRESENT NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT, AND ALONG THE MEXICO AND TEXAS COASTLINE. A 1019 MB HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ITS RELATED RIDGE DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE GULF WITH GENTLE WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. AFTERWARD, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF LATE SUN NIGHT,THEN QUICKLY REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY MON NIGHT. IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUE. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEAS RAPIDLY
BECOMING ROUGH. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF, AND OFFSHORE TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ, MEXICO ON
SUN NIGHT AND MON. THE WINDS OFFSHORE VERACRUZ MAY ATTAIN BRIEF
GUSTS TO STORM- FORCE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
REFER TO THE GULF OF AMERICA SECTION FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE, A A FAIR TRADE-WIND REGIME CONTINUES
AS CROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. GENTLE TO MODERATE
E TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT 1 TO 3 FT EXIST AT THE NORTHWESTERN
BASIN. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS AT 4 TO
6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT
PULSING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SAT, WITH A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 72W
AND 76W. AFTERWARD, NEW HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RESULTING PRESSURE
GRADIENT LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND BUILDING SEAS
EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THROUGH PASSAGES.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS
31N66W AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO BEYOND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING NEAR AND UP TO 50 NM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF
PORT ST. LUCIE. FARTHER EAST CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
PRODUCING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 52W AND
58W. A ROBUST SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WINDS IS
CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 42W AND 54W. REFER TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.
GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT
ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 55W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA COAST. TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WITH
LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS ARE NOTED NORTH OF
05N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 05N TO 23N
BETWEEN 55W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, MAINLY MODERATE ENE WINDS AND
SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT EXIST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WEST OF
35W, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
RETREATING EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEASTERN COAST MON
EVENING, THEN SLOW DOWN AND STALL FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE TUE. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
FLORIDA AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS STARTING SUN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD REST OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE TUE. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH TUE AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD, ROUGH SEAS
PRODUCED BY LONG-PERIOD E SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING DURING
MIDWEEK.
CHAN
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