455
AXNT20 KNHC 150555
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN MAR 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING:
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF SUN
EVENING, THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRONG TO NEAR-GALE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT, PEAKING AT GALE TO STRONG GALE-FORCE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING, THEN OFF THE
MEXICO COAST FROM THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
VERACRUZ MON AND MON EVENING. SEAS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 15 AND 18 FT
UNDER THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS OFF TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ, MEXICO
COULD GUST UP TO STORM-FORCE MON AND MON AFTERNOON. BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING
LATE MON AFTERNOON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF
GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE, THEN REACHES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N19W.
AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N19W ACROSS 00N27W TO NEAR FORTALEZA,
BRAZIL AT 03S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 04S TO 03N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 11W AND 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR AN UPCOMING
GALE WARNING.
TWO SURFACE TROUGHS, ONE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULAR AND ANOTHER
OVER FLORIDA ARE TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
OTHERWISE, A BROAD BUT WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS
AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL FOR THE WESTERN GULF, INCLUDING THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF SUN NIGHT, QUICKLY REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY MON
NIGHT AND SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ON
TUE. PLEASE REFER THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAIL.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION INTO MIDWEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A RELATIVELY FAIR TRADE-WIND PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT
ARE PRESENT AT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN. MODERATE WITH LOCALLY
FRESH ENE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT DOMINATE THE EASTERN,
NORTH-CENTRAL AND PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN BASIN. MODERATE TO
FRESH E WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT AT THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE NE TO SE WINDS AND SEAS AT
1 TO 4 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUN, WITH THE RESULTING PRESSURE
GRADIENT LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND BUILDING SEAS
EXTENDING FROM THE WATERS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUN TO
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE PASSAGES ON MON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BY TUE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR BERMUDA ACROSS 31N69W TO
NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST, WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE FOUND
OFF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA, AND FROM 20N TO 24N AND WEST OF 50W,
INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. FOR NORTH OF 24N AND WEST OF
50W, GENTLE WITH LOCALLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
IN MIXED MODERATE SWELLS ARE FOUND. TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 31N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W, MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN LARGE NE TO E SWELL EXIST. FOR THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N AND WEST OF 50W, FRESH
WITH LOCALLY STRONG ENE TO E WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT WILL RETREAT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST
MON EVENING, THEN SLOW DOWN AND STALL FROM NEAR 31N70W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE TUE. FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF 28N AND WEST
OF 64W STARTING SUN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG
NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH TUE. TO THE SOUTH, ROUGH
SEAS PRODUCED BY LONG-PERIOD E SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING DURING
MIDWEEK.
CHAN
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