576
AXNT20 KNHC 161103
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON MAR 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF AMERICA STORM WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY AT
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF
THE GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THESE WINDS
ARE PEAKING AT GALE-FORCE OFF COAST OF TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING. EXPECT STRONG GALES OFF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN
TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ TODAY TROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO STORM FORCE. SEAS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 14 AND 16
FT UNDER THE STRONGEST WINDS. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH STARTING THIS EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITES
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML AND
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/OFFSHORES.PHP FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
A MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE GAMBIA COAST, THEN
CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N23W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N23W
ACROSS 00N30W TO NEAR FORTALEZA, BRAZIL AT 04S38W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAIL UP TO 120 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ.
..GULF OF AMERICA
PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
A STORM WARNING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS
TO NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
UP TO 80 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ARE CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA. OTHER THAN
THE STORM AND GALE-FORCE WINDS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION, STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WITH 8 TO 11 FT
SEAS ARE PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW
WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED AT THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS AT 2
TO 4 FT PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE, CONDITIONS IN THE GULF
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK..
..CARIBBEAN SEA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND IS REACHING THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN, WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS ARE
NOTED W OF 73W. SEAS IN THESE AREAS RANGE FROM 7 TO 10 FT. THE
EXCEPTION IS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF COLOMBIA, WHERE
STRONG WINDS ARE CURRENTLY PULSING WITH 9 TO 11 FT SEAS. FRESH TO
STRONG E TO ESE WINDS AND SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FT ARE EVIDENT AT THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE ENE TO SE WINDS AND 3 TO 6 FT
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR
THE LESSER ANTILLES, AND THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN,
INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC EXPOSURES AND PASSAGES THROUGH TUE EVENING.
ON TUE MORNING, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA. THEN, IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND
POSSIBLY STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY EARLY
WED MORNING. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH AND
ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ARE CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OFF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. OTHERWISE, A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE RELATED TO A 1023 MB AZORES HIGH IS DOMINATING MUCH
OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN. REFER TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. FRESH WITH
LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 75W AND THE FLORIDA/SOUTHER GEORGIA COAST.
TO THE EAST FROM 25N TO 31N AND BETWEEN 45W AND 75W, MODERATE ENE
TO SE WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT. FARTHER SOUTH FROM 05N
TO 25N BETWEEN 45W AND THE LESSER ANTILLES, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
E WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FT SEAS EXIST. FOR THE REMAINING AREA OF THE
ATLANTIC WEST OF 35W, GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS AND SEAS AT 6 TO
8 FT IN MODERATE NE SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE AZORES HIGH ACROSS 31N50W TO BEYOND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
SOUTH OF 25N, INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND GREAT BAHAMA
BANK THROUGH TUE. BY TUE EVENING, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN, THEN STALL
FROM NEAR 31N70W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA ON
WED. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF 28N, EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
THESE WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE W TO NW THIS EVENING WHILE
FOLLOWING THE FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU. AT THE SAME TIME, A LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD.
CHAN
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