982
AXNT20 KNHC 181028
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC WED MAR 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1020 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
EAST ATLANTIC LONG-PERIOD N SWELL: LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NORTH SWELL
GENERATED BY A LARGE FETCH OF GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD OF 31N
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEAS OF 12 AND 21 FT THROUGH SAT
MAINLY N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND EAST OF 43W. SEAS ACROSS
THESE NORTHEASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 12N17W, THEN CURVES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N21W TO
00N32W TO 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 04N
WEST OF 15W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER SW LOUISIANA
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDS BASIN-WIDE AND SUPPORTS GENTLE TO MODERATE
NE WINDS ACROSS THE NE AND SW GULF. A TIGHTER GRADIENT OF PRESSURE
IN THE SE GULF DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
TO 9 FT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL ADJACENT
WATERS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, NORTHEAST FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND PREVAIL INTO
THE WEEKEND.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM
22N80W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BOTH THE FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OF 8 TO
9 FT PREVAIL, WITH FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS FARTHER EAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC TO EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE NE
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES, AND THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE ATLANTIC EXPOSURES AND
PASSAGES THROUGH TODAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TONIGHT.
THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE AND ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO 27N74W AND THEN STALLS TO
ANDROS ISLAND AND WESTERN CUBA. HEAVY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS, THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK AND
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE FLORIDA SEABOARD. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS ARE AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. OVER THE FAR EASTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, THE TAIL OF A FRONT TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE N
TO NW WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO 21 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL
COMPLETELY STALL FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS
N OF 25N THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM THEN TRANSITIONS TO A
COLD FRONT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
RAMOS
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