400
AXNT20 KNHC 181654
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED MAR 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1630 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
EAST ATLANTIC LONG-PERIOD N SWELL: LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NORTH SWELL
GENERATED BY A LARGE FETCH OF GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD OF 31N
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEAS OF 12 AND 21 FT THROUGH SAT
MAINLY N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND EAST OF 43W. SEAS ACROSS
THESE NORTHEASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11.5W, THEN CURVES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02.5N20W TO
01N38W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04.5S TO 04N BETWEEN
06W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE
ALABAMA AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD BASIN-WIDE, SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS ACROSS THE NE AND SW GULF, WHERE SEAS
ARE 3 TO 6 FT. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SE GULF DUE TO A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN,
WHICH IS GENERATING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N-NE TO NE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS 6 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS, AND 10 TO 12 FT SEAS IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, AS THE NE WAVES INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERLY
OCEAN CURRENT FLOWING THROUGH THE CHANNEL. GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE GULF REGION AND A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
THROUGH FRI. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A COLD FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN,
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA ALONG 81.5W TO CENTRAL BELIZE. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT, FROM
CUBA ALONG 80.5W TO NEAR 13N80W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDUCED BY
BOTH THE FRONT AND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW BASIN, MAINLY N OF 15N AND W OF 76W.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT PREVAIL
NORTH OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN, FRESH TO STRONG
E TO E-SE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT PREVAIL E OF THE
TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
CUBA TO THE GULF ON HONDURAS TODAY. ON THU, AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRIFTS EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES, WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS
THAN 8 FT. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS
TO DIMINISH THROUGH SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM 31N69W TO 25.5N78W
IN THE NW BAHAMAS, THEN CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ALONG 81W.
HEAVY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
BAHAMAS, THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK, THE FLORIDA STRAITS, SE FLORIDA
SEABOARD AND WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
BERMUDA. MOSTLY FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE FRONT, WHERE
SEAS ARE 5 TO 9 FT E OF 80W, AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS. A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR
37N45W DOMINATES MOST OF THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND 25W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF NW AFRICA THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
21N33W TO 23.5N48W. MOSTLY FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL
NORTH OF THE FRONT, WHERE LARGE N SWELL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO
18 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN
E OF 65W, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 10 FT IN MIXED N AND E SWELL.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE
BETWEEN 65W AND THE STALLED FRONT, WITH SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN
EASTERLY SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS ON THU. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THU INTO FRI, AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SAT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT, SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS N OF 25N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS, THE FRONT
WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MON.
STRIPLING
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