778
AXNT20 KNHC 182031
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC THU MAR 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A GALE-WARNING IS IN EFFECT, ISSUED BY
METEO-FRANCE, FOR THE HIGH SEAS ZONES OF IRVING, WEST OF MADEIRA,
AND METEOR UNTIL 19/12 UTC AT LEAST, WITH SEVERE GUSTS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NEXT SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS ON ASSOCIATED LARGE
SWELLS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY METEO-
FRANCE ON THE WEBSITE: HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT FOR MORE DETAILS.
EAST ATLANTIC LONG-PERIOD N SWELL: LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NORTH SWELL
GENERATED BY A LARGE FETCH OF GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD OF 31N
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEAS OF 12-24 FT THROUGH SAT MAINLY N
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND EAST OF 43W. SEAS ACROSS THESE
NORTHEASTERN WATERS WILL THEN GRADUALLY REDUCE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS ON MON. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 08N12W THEN CURVES
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N18W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 07W AND 22W, AND S OF
05N BETWEEN 24W AND 61W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UNITED STATES MID-ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHWARD
BASIN-WIDE, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS THE SE
HALF OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH 4 TO 7 FT SEAS, EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR
AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL, WHERE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES DUE TO A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE AT E-SE WITH 2 TO 5 FT
SEAS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS
THE GULF REGION AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO FRI. MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT, FROM NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 20N80W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
AT 12N80W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDUCED BY BOTH THE FRONT AND
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE NW BASIN, MAINLY N OF 14N AND W OF 75W. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 9 FT PREVAIL N OF THE FRONT.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN E OF THE TROUGH, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG E-SE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT PREVAIL.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS, INCLUDING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN, WITH SEAS OF
3 TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO
THE GULF ON HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS FOLLOW THE FRONT. ON THU, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD, WITH THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS SPILLING JUST
OFFSHORE NICARAGUA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY FRI. THIS WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD DECREASE
THE INFLUENCE FROM THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH THROUGH SAT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN EAST
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE, AND ASSOCIATED LARGE
NORTHERLY SWELLS.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND
WESTERN CUBA. HEAVY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE BAHAMAS, THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK, THE FLORIDA STRAITS,
SE FLORIDA SEABOARD AND WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. MOSTLY FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE
FRONT, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 9 FT E OF 80W, AND 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS, HIGHER IN THE GULFSTREAM.
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED ON A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 37N45W DOMINATES
MOST OF THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 25W. FRESH
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FOUND N OF 23N AND E OF 40W TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE TO STORM FORCE SYSTEM
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
UNDER A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE
FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT OVER THE SE WATERS S OF 20N AND E OF 35W
INCLUDING ACROSS THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS, AND 7 TO 11 FT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THU.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE THU INTO FRI, AND MOVE QUICKLY NE AND N OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SAT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF
FRONT AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS N OF 25N THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THIS SYSTEM THEN TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.
LEWITSKY
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