946
AXNT20 KNHC 201029
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI MAR 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1020 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING, IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGH SEAS ZONES OF IRVING, WEST OF
MADEIRA, METEOR AND AGADIR, UNTIL 21/00 UTC AT LEAST, WITH SEVERE
GUSTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE NEXT SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS ON
ASSOCIATED VERY LARGE SWELLS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE ON THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT FOR MORE DETAILS.
EAST ATLANTIC LONG-PERIOD N SWELL: VERY LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NORTH
SWELL GENERATED BY A LARGE FETCH OF GALE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS IN
THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD OF 31N
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SEAS OF 12-24 FT INTO SAT NIGHT,
MAINLY N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND EAST OF 43W. SEAS ACROSS
THESE NORTHEASTERN WATERS WILL THEN GRADUALLY REDUCE IN AREAL
COVERAGE WITH THE REMAINING VERY ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS MON. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N11W, THEN CURVES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N14W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N14W TO 01N30W TO 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06S TO 05N AND
WEST OF 16W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER EXTENDS BASIN-WIDE, MAINTAINING FAIRLY TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
A STATIONARY FRONT SE OF THE AREA IS LEADING TO FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE SE GULF, ALONG WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS
THE GULF REGION AND A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SE GULF, INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA, THROUGH TODAY. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NIGHTLY, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ACROSS THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN COSTA RICA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS PREVAIL W OF
THE FRONT, WITH SEAS TO 7 FT. TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES,
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
AFTERWARD, MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA SUN EVENING AND PREVAIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN EAST
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE AND ASSOCIATED LARGE
NORTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS THE FAR NE WATERS.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
EASTERN CUBA. A LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FRONT,
WHICH IS LOCATED NEAR 27N70W. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS ARE SEEN
MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ABOUT 57W. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WHILE
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF 25N. ROUGH SEAS TO
10 FT ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
IN THE EAST ATLANTIC, A COLD FRONT IS JUST E OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS, WHICH EXTENDS TO 21N23W TO 23N38W. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE CANARY ISLANDS. STRONG TO NEAR GALE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE NORTH OF 21N AND
EAST OF 42W, WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS FRONT DEPICTED FURTHER IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SPECIAL MARINE
SECTION ABOVE. THE ROUGH SEAS IN NE SWELL EXTEND MUCH FARTHER S
AND W, REACHING TO 15N AND AS FAR W AS 55W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, AND N OF 25N, WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE SUN
NIGHT AS THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT TODAY. LOOKING
AHEAD, A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NE FLORIDA
OFFSHORE WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE
TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO AFFECT MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
NEXT WEEK.
RAMOS
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