578
AXNT20 KNHC 202213
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT MAR 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: ACCORDING TO THE LATEST METEO-FRANCE
FORECAST, A GALE WARNING FOR WINDS GUSTING TO GALE-FORCE FOR THE
HIGH SEAS ZONE OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF IRVING UNTIL 21/12 UTC.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NEXT SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS ON ASSOCIATED
VERY LARGE SWELLS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY METEO- FRANCE ON THE WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT FOR MORE DETAILS.
EAST ATLANTIC LONG-PERIOD N SWELL: VERY LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NORTH
SWELL GENERATED BY A LARGE FETCH OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD OF 31N
THROUGH SUN. EXPECT SEAS OF 12-21 FT TONIGHT, SUBSIDING TO 12 TO
16 FT ON SAT, MAINLY N OF 19N AND EAST OF ABOUT 38W. SEAS OVER
THESE NORTHEASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE WITH THE REMAINING VERY ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS MON. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N11W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N17W, WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 02N35W TO JUST INLAND BRAZIL.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 25W AND 35W AND FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 44W AND THE COAST
OF BRAZIL.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER IS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N88W,
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A STATIONARY FRONT
SE OF THE AREA IS LEADING TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE SE
GULF, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS
THE GULF REGION AND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SE GULF, INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA, THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
NIGHTLY, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH A THERMAL TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH
SPEEDS OVER THE NE GULF LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS THERE.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF NORTHERN COSTA RICA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTH
WINDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT. TO THE EAST,
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. AFTERWARD, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING
THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH EARLY SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
SUN NIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH WED NIGHT.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON AN EAST
ATLANTIC GALE WARNING ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE AND ASSOCIATED LARGE
NORTHERLY SWELL THAT IS IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHEAST WATERS OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 30N67W THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS AND INTO EASTERN CUBA. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST FROM AROUND
29N64W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
EXISTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH, N OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SE U.S. IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS, WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS BUILDING FROM THESE WINDS.
WINDS ARE ALSO INCREASING SE OF THE LOW PRESSURE, AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND TROUGH, WITH FRESH S WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS N OF 26N
EXTENDING E TO 58W.
IN THE EAST ATLANTIC, A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD TO
NEAR 20N, EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO AROUND 35W. FRESH N WINDS ARE N
OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH STRONG CYCLONIC WINDS N OF 25N AND E OF 35W.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR THE GALE-FORCE WINDS FARTHER
NE, AS WELL AS THE VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS COLD
FRONT. ROUGH SEAS IN NORTHERLY SWELL IN THE EAST ATLANTIC EXTEND
SOUTHWARD TO 10N AND W TO 57W, AND ARE IMPACTING THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, S OF 20N MAINLY MODERATE NE
TRADES AND SEAS DOMINATE. N OF 20N, RIDGING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 38N42W IS CAUSING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST W OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, AND MAINLY N OF 25N,
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH SUN AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N63W TO HISPANIOLA BY SAT
MORNING, AND FROM 31N57W TO PUERTO RICO BY SUN MORNING. LOOKING
AHEAD, A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF NE FLORIDA MON NIGHT INTO TUE, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE
TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WEEK.
KONARIK
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