848
AXNT20 KNHC 211055
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT MAR 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
EAST ATLANTIC LONG-PERIOD N SWELL: VERY LARGE, LONG-PERIOD NORTH
SWELL GENERATED BY A LARGE FETCH OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD OF 31N
THROUGH SUN. EXPECT SEAS OF 12-20 FT TONIGHT, SUBSIDING TO 12 TO
16 FT TODAY, MAINLY NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF ABOUT 38W. SEAS OVER
THESE NORTHEASTERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE WITH THE REMAINING VERY ROUGH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 12 FT
NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS MON. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N20W, WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ THAT CONTINUES TO 02S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ
BETWEEN 13W AND 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A BASIN-WIDE RIDGE IS CENTERED BY A 1021 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N88W, SUPPORTING MODERATE NE WINDS AND
4-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF, AND MODERATE S WINDS AND
3-4 FT SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. GENTLE BREEZES AND SLIGHT SEAS
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN
MOSTLY MODERATE SE BREEZES AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS. A TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MAINLY NIGHT THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT LIGHT BREEZES AND NEAR CALM
SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH WED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF COLOMBIA. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NNE WINDS FOLLOW THE
FRONT, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS BEING OBSERVED IN THE LEE SIDE OF
SOUTHERN CUBA AND OFFSHORE NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE MODERATE TO 6-8 FT
BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN,
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER FROM THE SE AND SEAS ARE SLIGHT TO
MODERATE.
FOR THE FORECAST, COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OFF
CENTRAL COLOMBIA. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH THIS MORNING, WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ATLANTIC PASSAGES AND IN THE LEE IN OF
HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUN. LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE BAHAMAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT PULSES OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA MON AND WED.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON LARGE
NORTHERLY SWELL THAT IS IMPACTING THE FAR NORTHEAST WATERS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N64W TO EASTERN
CUBA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE NEAR A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH PARALLEL TO
THE BOUNDARY FROM 24N70W INTO HISPANIOLA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE SE U.S. IS LEADING TO FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS AND ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WEST OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 77W. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO 55W, WINDS ARE FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE S TO SW AND SEAS
ARE ROUGH TO 10 FT.
IN THE EAST ATLANTIC, 990 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N21W,
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 10-15 KT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO THE CANARY ISLANDS.
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS ARE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW, IMPACTING THE AREA NORTH OF 20N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES ARE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE, WITH LARGE NORTHERLY
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, AND MAINLY N OF 25N, WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
SUN AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N63W TO HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING,
AND FROM 31N57W TO PUERTO RICO BY SUN MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, A
NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NE
FLORIDA MON NIGHT INTO TUE, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 27N INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WEEK BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT.
CHRISTENSEN
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