637
AXNT20 KNHC 211622
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SAT MAR 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1610 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING,
FROM NOW THROUGH 22/0000 UTC, FOR THE CANARIAS MARINE ZONE. SW
WINDS TO FORCE 8 ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 993 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
30N19W. 12-16 FT SEAS, LOCALLY REACHING 17 FT, IS ANALYZED NORTH
OF 20N AND EAST OF 35W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AFTER THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES AND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS. FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHE/2 FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N16W, WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 06N BETWEEN 35W AND 48W. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF OTHER SEGMENTS
OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.
GULF OF AMERICA...
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE NE GULF REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND
1-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL. ALONG THE COAST OF NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS,
WINDS MAY REACH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS. THE DIURNAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR CALM SEAS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH WED.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD TO THE COLOMBIA
OFFSHORE WATERS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF LOSING ITS THERMAL AND
MOISTURE GRADIENTS. BY THIS EVENING, IT WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE
INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF THE CHARACTER OF THE
BOUNDARY, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF THE FRONT, INCLUDING SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA, WITHIN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA,
THROUGH MONDAY. THESE WINDS WERE CAPTURED ON THIS MORNING'S
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER PASS. SEAS ARE ANALYZED TO BE 5-7 FT
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND WEST- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED WINDS PERSIST. ELSEWHERE, IN THE EAST-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO
SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AS THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE COLOMBIA MON
THROUGH WED.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING EAST OF 35W ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
31N64W TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO N WINDS ARE
WEST OF THE FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE S
TO SW WINDS WERE DETECTED BY SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER NORTH OF 20N
EAST OF THE FRONT TO 60W. SEAS ARE 7-11 FT NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN
55W AND 76W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF 23W BETWEEN
60W AND 67W. 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 35N44W GUIDES THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC, WHERE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL WITH A NARROW REGION OF 4-7 FT
SEAS BETWEEN 49W AND 55W. EAST OF 49W, SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN NE
SWELL GENERATED BY THE GALE FORCE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, AND MAINLY N OF 25N, WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
SUN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N57W TO PUERTO RICO BY SUN MORNING. THEN,
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE WATERS ON MON WHILE
DISSIPATING. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NE FLORIDA MON NIGHT INTO TUE, FOLLOWED BY
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. THESE MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT MOST OF THE WATERS N OF 27N INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LIFTS N.
MAHONEY
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