030
AXNT20 KNHC 212203
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN MAR 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING E OF 35W: METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING,
FROM THROUGH 22/0000 UTC, FOR THE CANARIAS MARINE ZONE. SW WINDS
TO FORCE 8 ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 994 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 31N18W.
THESE GALES HAVE GENERATED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF VERY ROUGH SEAS
EXTENDING S TO 21N AND W TO 32W, WITH PEAK SEAS AROUND 15 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS, ALTHOUGH
SOME SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUN JUST
W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWMIWS.WMO.INT/INDEX.PHP/METAREAS/AFFICHE/2 FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N16W, WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF BOTH OF THESE
AXES.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE NE GULF REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS GENERALLY PREVAIL. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND TEXAS, WITH SIMILAR NE WINDS NEAR THE COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
MAINTAIN MOSTLY MODERATE SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF WILL SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
WED. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH SPEEDS OVER THE FAR NE
GULF LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLIPS THE AREA.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DECAYING COLD FRONT HAS NOW DEVOLVED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO JUST OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE W OF THIS TROUGH, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
JUST OFFSHORE SOUTHERN CUBA AND HAITI, BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA,
AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT, WITH SOME LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS LIKELY PRESENT. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH, WINDS ARE
MAINLY SE AND GENTLE, WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS IN THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA, THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH MON. AS THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE COLOMBIA MON
THROUGH THU, MAINLY AT NIGHT.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING EAST OF 35W ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE JUST SE OF BERMUDA
TO HAITI. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT N OF 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXTENDING TO
ABOUT 75W, FRESH N WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL, WITH WATERS
FURTHER WEST HAVING MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS AS THEY BECOME MORE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA.
E OF THE FRONT, STRONG S TO SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE PRESENT N
OF 23N, EASTWARD TO 50W.
IN THE NE ATLANTIC, ASIDE FROM THE GALES AND VERY ROUGH SEAS BEING
GENERATED BY THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE N OF THE REGION, A BROADER
AREA OF STRONG N WINDS EXTENDS S OF 31N TO 27N TO THE EAST OF 33W.
ROUGH SEAS IN MAINLY N SWELL HAVE PROPAGATED ACROSS THE ENTIRETY
OF THE EASTERN BASIN TO THE EAST OF 47W, INCLUDING WATERS AROUND
THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS.
FOR THE PORTION OF THE BASIN BETWEEN THE TWO LOW PRESSURES, A 1027
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 35N44W IS THE PRIMARY WEATHER
INFLUENCE. THIS IS LEADING TO MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, AND MAINLY
N OF 25N, WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH SUN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N57W TO PUERTO RICO BY SUN
MORNING. THEN, THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE WATERS MON
THROUGH TUE WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NE FLORIDA MON
NIGHT INTO TUE, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT MOST OF
THE WATERS N OF 27N INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK BEFORE
STARTING TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS N.
KONARIK
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