497
AXNT20 KNHC 232219
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC TUE MAR 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 01N22W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01N22W TO 02S44W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SW GULF AND BAY OF
CAMPECHE. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
PREVAIL. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES OVER THE
EASTERN GULF INTO LATE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION OF THE GULF LATE TUE, BRINGING MODERATE
NE WINDS, THEN DISSIPATE ON WED. A TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF ON SAT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA
AND ALSO THE W ATLANTIC. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS
ANALYZED TO END NEAR 18N66W. FROM THAT POINT ON, A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO 15N76W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASSES
CONFIRMED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES AS WELL AS IN THE LEE OF BOTH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN THESE WATERS. MODERATE OR WEAKER TRADES
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SOUTH OF CUBA,
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT
AND TUE NIGHT. THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE COLOMBIA TUE THROUGH
SAT, MAINLY AT NIGHT, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N49W TO 23N53W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM THAT POINT TO 19N64W. RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE SE WINDS
NORTH OF 27N AND EAST OF THE FRONT TO 46W, AND FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF THE FRONT TO 56W. COMBINED SEAS
ARE 8 TO 13 FT NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 59W. IN THE REST OF
THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC WEST OF 50W, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N72W IS SUSTAINING MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS.
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, A WEAKENING 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FORCES FRESH TO STRONG N-NE
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 30W.
N-NW SWELL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TRADE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY WED WHILE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND BERMUDA TONIGHT INTO TUE, FOLLOWED
BY FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N65W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL,
FLORIDA EARLY WED, BEFORE STALLING, THEN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA ON SAT.
ERA
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