257
AXNT20 KNHC 240405
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC TUE MAR 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0355 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02N19W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N19W TO 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS SUPPORTS
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS IN THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 23N AND EAST OF 93W. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 3-5 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES OVER THE
EASTERN GULF INTO LATE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION OF THE GULF LATE TUE, BRINGING
MODERATE NE WINDS, THEN DISSIPATE ON WED. A TROUGH OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, MAINLY AT
NIGHT, THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SAT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
FORCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS OFF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA,
WINDWARD PASSAGE, LEE OF CUBA AND OFF NW COLOMBIA. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 4-7 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS
THE NE CARIBBEAN TO 16N70W AND A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT NORTH OF 13N AND
EAST OF 84W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CENTERED E
OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS
SOUTH OF CUBA, THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND JUST SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE U.S.V.I. WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE COLOMBIA TUE THROUGH
SAT, MAINLY AT NIGHT, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N49W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 24N52W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED NEAR AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 28N AND BETWEEN 44W AND 55W.
NORTHERLY SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 24N
AND EAST OF 60W. MEANWHILE, MODERATE TO FRESH SW-W WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 28N AND WEST OF 65W DUE TO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND OFF NE HISPANIOLA AND
EASTERN CUBA, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE REST OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC, WEST OF 55W,
ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT SUPPORTS LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC, A WEAKENING 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FORCES FRESH TO STRONG N-NE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 24N AND EAST OF 27W. N-NW SWELL
SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TRADE WATERS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, NORTHERLY SWELL OF 7-11
FT COVERING THE AREA NORTH OF 25N AND EAST OF 60W WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW 8 FT OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A NEW
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND BERMUDA TONIGHT INTO TUE, FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG
NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH FROM 31N65W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA EARLY WED,
BEFORE STALLING, THEN WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA ON SAT.
DELGADO
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