308
AXNT20 KNHC 242301
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC WED MAR 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N19W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N19W TO 00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 01N TO 05N EAST OF 43W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 28N83W TO 30N93W. ELSEWHERE, 1020
MB HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE, WITH GENTLE BREEZES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NE GULF ON
WED, WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF SAT MORNING AND REACH FROM EXTREME S FLORIDA TO
NE MEXICO BY SUN MORNING.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 16N83W, WITH SURFACE
TROUGH FROM THE LOW TO 15N80W. ANOTHER WESTWARD-MOVING SURFACE
TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG 68W IN THE SE BASIN. WINDS THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN ARE BEING REGULATED BY THE RELATIVELY MODEST GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, LEADING TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS JUST S OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AS WELL AS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS
ARE MAINLY 3 TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SOUTH OF CUBA, THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT, MAINLY
AT NIGHT, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION, WEST OF A
WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N47W TO 20N60W THEN
INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. A STRONG COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES TODAY AND EXTENDS
FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO JUST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA. STRONG
TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT. A RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN THIS TWO FEATURES EXITS
SW THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, CREATING A ZONE
OF GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS.
IN THE FAR EAST ATLANTIC, A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW IS NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS, INDUCING STRONG NE WINDS
NW OF THE ISLANDS, WITH ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS IN AN AREA N OF 22N
BETWEEN 30W AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TRADES AND
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WILL
REACH FROM 31N64W TO CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA TONIGHT, THEN BEGIN
TO STALL AND QUICKLY WEAKEN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATES. MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL THU THROUGH LATE FRI ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY SAT, AND REACH FROM 31N62W TO
MIAMI BY SUN MORNING. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL DOMINATE ALL WATERS NORTH OF THE FRONT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
ERA
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