214
AXNT20 KNHC 251606
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC WED MAR 25 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N11W TO 02N24W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 02N25W TO 00N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 05N E OF 20W.
GULF OF AMERICA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM FORT MYERS, FLORIDA, TO LEEVILLE,
LOUISIANA. MODERATE E WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT ARE N OF THE
FRONT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE BREEZES AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT PREVAIL. NO CONVECTION IS
NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER
TODAY, WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF SAT MORNING AND REACH THE SE GULF BY SUN
MORNING, AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BASIN LATE ON SUN. FRESH TO STRONG
NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N80W TO 19N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THIS TROUGH, THE CAYMAN ISLANDS, AND
JAMAICA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS ARE ALSO PRESENT IN
REGION. ASIDE FROM THE FAR SW BASIN, WHERE LIKE TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH
THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE LEE SIDE OF
CUBA, THE WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO NEAR STUART, FLORIDA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY N
OF THE BAHAMAS. N OF THE BOUNDARY, FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS LEADING TO MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC, A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW IS S OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
N AND W OF THE LOW CENTER, IMPACTING WATERS N OF 24N AND E OF 25W.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL THU THROUGH LATE FRI ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS
OFFSHORE OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING, AND REACH FROM
31N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SAT NIGHT, AND FROM 31N60W TO SE
FLORIDA BY SUN MORNING. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
KONARIK
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