089
AXNT20 KNHC 271644
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC FRI MAR 27 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1644 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING, REACH FROM
BERMUDA TO WEST PALM BEACH SAT NIGHT, AND FROM 31N55W TO THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS SUN NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE. STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE NE WINDS, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE, AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SAT THROUGH EARLY
SUN. AFTERWARD, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE
THROUGH THU.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 07.5N13W AND
CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 02S29W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02S29W
TO 02.5S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE 03S
TO 04N BETWEEN 15W AND 42W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF CONTINUES TO
EXTEND A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINING BASIN AND PROVIDES
LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE E GULF, EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF, LOW PRESSURE OVER
TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT OF PRESSURE, AND
SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS. SEAS ARE SLIGHT
TO MODERATE BASIN-WIDE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, MAINLY AT NIGHT, THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
EARLY SAT MORNING, REACH THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY SUN MORNING, AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE BASIN LATE ON SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN FRESH TO STRONG EAST
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BASIN
AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING WITHIN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.
SEAS ARE 7-9 FT WITH THESE WINDS, MAINLY OFFSHORE THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS WELL AS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF NICARAGUA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH
THE COLOMBIAN LOW WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, SUPPORTING FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN THE LEE SIDE OF CUBA, THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE, AND JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING.
A 1038 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 46N32W
EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. A SURFACE
TROUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKENS THE RIDGE FROM 30N52W TO 22N64W WHERE IT
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT EXTENDS BETWEEN 55W
AND 61W. WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL WATERS
ARE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH FROM THE NE TO E AND SEAS ARE MAINLY
MODERATE. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE ALSO IN THE GREAT
BAHAMA BANK WHILE MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS OFFSHORE OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING, AND REACH
FROM 31N60W TO SE FLORIDA BY SUN MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ON
MON. STRONG WINDS, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE, AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH SUN MORNING. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE FRESH TO STRONG
NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST REGION LIKELY THROUGH TUE.
KRV
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