133
AXNT20 KNHC 031003
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC FRI APR 3 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N20W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N20W AND CONTINUES TO 01N42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 15W AND 35W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE BASIN, MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS DOMINATE, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS ONGOING.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE BASIN WILL WEAKEN
AND SLIDE EAST BY SAT, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE
TEXAS SAT NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS
WILL DOMINATE, EXCEPT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHERE LOCALLY STRONG
E WINDS WILL PREVAIL. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRACK INTO THE
SE BASIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH STRONG NE WINDS EXPECT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG
WITH ROUGH SEAS.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA, SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND ALSO IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
SEAS OVER THESE AREAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. MODERATE TO FRESH
NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS YIELDING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE NW
BASIN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
PULSING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA, CUBA,
HISPANIOLA, AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO SAT. THIS
WEEKEND, THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SOME AND MOVE EAST, LOOSENING THE
GRADIENT AND ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE SOME. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC MON THROUGH TUE, MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
SUBTROPICAL WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORES N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES, INCLUDING THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS IN
THIS AREA ARE UP TO 11 FT. OVER THE FAR E ATLANTIC, A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N22W TO 21N28W, WHICH IS TIGHTENING THE
GRADIENT OF PRESSURE AND SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS E OF 37W, INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. IT IS ALSO NOW
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN
19W AND 24W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES
EASTWARD. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL FROM HISPANIOLA
NORTHWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC BY SUN NIGHT, WEAKENING WINDS
FURTHER. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
EARLY MON AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD, REACHING FROM 31N70W TO
SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUE MORNING.
KONARIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page