822
AXNT20 KNHC 032304
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SAT APR 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 04N20W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N20W TO 03N34W, THEN RESUMES W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED S OF 10N ALONG 35W/36W FROM 00N37W TO
00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N
BETWEEN 05W AND 15W, AND FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF REGION. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG E TO SE WINDS FROM 23N TO 27N E OF 87W, INCLUDING
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS,
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL EXCEPT OFFSHORE
WEST FLORIDA WHERE SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE NOTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS, WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ARE OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF
THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN FLORIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD SAT EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND TO
THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF SUN, THEN STALL FROM S FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF AND TO THE WEST-CENTRTAL GULF FROM EARLY NEXT WEEK
INTO THE MID-WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK FROM W TO E ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT ABOUT MID-WEEK. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF BEHIND
THE FRONT ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE GULF, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE PART, WILL DIMINISH
ON SAT, BUT CONTINUE AT FRESH SPEEDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN
LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA,
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA, AND ALSO IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS WITHIN
THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE 8 TO 9 FT OFFSHORE COLOMBIA, BASED ON ALTIMETER
DATA, AND 6 TO 8 FT ELSEWHERE. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING PARTS OF CUBA, THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND JAMAICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR BERMUDA AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
PULSING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA, CUBA, HISPANIOLA,
AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
SOME AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUBSIDING
SEAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC MON THROUGH TUE AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1032 MB LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N65W EXTENDS
A RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC FORECAST WATERS PRODUCING A
PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT N OF 20N AND W OF 55W. AS A RESULT,
SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
E WINDS ACROSS THE WEATERS N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES, INCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS
IN THIS AREA ARE UP TO 11 FT BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. OVER THE FAR
E ATLANTIC, A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE
SITUATED NEAR 26N25W TO 20N31W. THESE FEATURES ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE VICINITY OF
22N21W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE LOW
CENTER AND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MADEIRA AND
CANARY ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF
THE WATERS S OF 26N. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH WEAKENS WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD.
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM HISPANIOLA
NORTHWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC BY SUN NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS
TO WEAKEN. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION INTO MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST EARLY ON MON, THEN SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING FROM NEAR 31N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
TUE MORNING AND STALL INTO MID-WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN
DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AT ABOUT MID-WEEK AS IT MERGES WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD N OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO A ROUGH STATE BEHIND THIS FRONT STARTING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY BEYOND MON NIGHT.
GR
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