533
AXNT20 KNHC 040545
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SAT APR 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0540 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES SW TO 03N27W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 03N27W TO 00N37W TO 01S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 06S TO 03N BETWEEN 05W AND 15W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF REGION. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL, EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE STRONG E
WINDS AND 7 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE ONGOING.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD SAT EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE TEXAS
COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY
OF CAMPECHE BY SUN, THEN STALL AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD
ALONG IT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF BEHIND
THE FRONT ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE GULF, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE PART, WILL
DIMINISH ON SAT, BUT CONTINUE AT FRESH SPEEDS IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN
LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN, EXCEPT FOR
STRONG NE WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE MODERATE EXCEPT ROUGH
WITHIN THE STRONG SPEED WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE E
BASIN. SEAS OVER BOTH THE NW AND E CARIBBEAN ARE MODERATE TO 5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT PULSING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA
AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR
THE THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS
AND SUBSIDING SEAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM
HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC MON THROUGH TUE AND
DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SUBTROPICS AND
TROPICS IS ALLOWING FOR GENERALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS S OF 26N AS
INDICATED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE FAR E ATLANTIC, A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR
25N26W TO 30N23W. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS S OF 26N WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH WEAKENS WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD. AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM HISPANIOLA
NORTHWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC BY SUN NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS
TO WEAKEN. THE TROUGH WILL TRACK IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION INTO MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST EARLY ON MON, THEN SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING FROM NEAR 31N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
TUE MORNING AND STALL INTO MID-WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH AT ABOUT MID-WEEK AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD N OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING STRONG
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A
ROUGH STATE BEHIND THIS FRONT STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. MARINERS
ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST, ESPECIALLY BEYOND
MON NIGHT.
RAMOS
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