013
AXNT20 KNHC 041004
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC SAT APR 4 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES
SW TO 03N27W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N27W TO 00N43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 03N AND E OF 20W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE BASIN. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
RIDGE, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL,
EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE STRONG E WINDS AND 7 TO 8
FT SEAS ARE ONGOING.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS TONIGHT, THEN
TRACK SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS
INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF SUN INTO MON, WITH
THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO THE NE GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN
LOW IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADES OVER THE MOST BASIN, EXCEPT FOR
STRONG NE WINDS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA. SEAS ARE MODERATE EXCEPT ROUGH
WITHIN THE STRONG SPEED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LAND BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA INTO TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT
SLIDES EASTWARD SUN ALLOWING FOR THE THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC MON THROUGH TUE AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
AREA AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE TROPICS IS ALLOWING FOR
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS OVER MUCH OF
THE WATERS S OF 25N AND E OF 55W. A LOW AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH
DRIFTING W THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SE BAHAMAS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW
PRESSURE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 22N28W IS NO LONGER
PRODUCING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER. THUS, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN OUTSIDE OF
THE CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS N OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WATERS
N OF 25N THIS WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN TROPICS WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS S
OF 23N, ALONG WITH ROUGH SEAS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES E. IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH,
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES, THEN MOVE SLOWLY
SE, REACHING NEAR 31N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA TUE, THEN BERMUDA TO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY WED. LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS
FRONT DURING THIS TIME, WILL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SE
UNITED STATES N OF THE BOUNDARY. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ALONG WITH ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS
STARTING TUE. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST.
KONARIK
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