811
AXNT20 KNHC 042311
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC SUN APR 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 05N18W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N18W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 05N BETWEEN 10W AND
30W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF REGION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
SYSTEM, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE PRESENT,
EXCEPT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E
WINDS ARE ONGOING. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL 5 TO 8 FT WITH THESE
WINDS, OCCASIONALLY HIGHER IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN THE NW GULF AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST
TONIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH
MON NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
GULF SUN INTO MON, WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO THE NE
GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU, AT WHICH TIME THEY WILL IMPROVE
SOME. THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE NE GULF TO REACH GALE-FORCE WED AND WED NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN
LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA WITH SEAS IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE AND MODERATE SEAS NOTED, EXCEPT IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OCCURRING. A DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF CUBA, JAMAICA, HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR BERMUDA AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
PULSING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA INTO TONIGHT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD SUN ALLOWING
FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN. THIS WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA WILL DRIFT WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS THROUGH
TUE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N72W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON INCREASE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
CURRENTLY, THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COVERS THE WATERS
SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W, INCLUDING MOST OF THE BAHAMAS.
ALL THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE RELATED TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE SAME AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SUBTROPICS AND
TROPICS IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS SOUTH OF ABOUT
26N AND W OF 55W. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 11 FT ARE PRESENT WITH THESE
WINDS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER E, ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH,
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW, EXTENDS FROM 30N43W TO
21N42W. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS
THAT IS CLEARLY DEFINED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUN
NIGHT INTO MON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EASTWARD
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA SUN NIGHT
REACHING FROM NEAR 31N76W TO EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA MON AFTERNOON,
FROM NEAR 31N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA TUE AFTERNOON, FROM NEAR 31N63W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY WED AFTERNOON. THEN STALL INTO THU
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
TUE. LOW PRESSURE MAY THEN FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTH OF 31N ON WED, WHILE AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD UP AGAINST THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE. THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS BEGINNING TUE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
THESE WINDS ATTAINING GALE-FORCE SPEEDS. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO
KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
GR
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