664
AXNT20 KNHC 050353
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0615 UTC SUN APR 5 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA
GULF OF AMERICA, CARIBBEAN SEA, NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA, AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 31N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, RADAR AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0340 UTC.
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD TO 03N24W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N24W TO 00N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 00N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO
05N BETWEEN 10W AND 24W, AND FROM 02S TO 06N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W.
..GULF OF AMERICA
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NW OF BERMUDA,
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF REGION. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THIS RIDGE, MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE PRESENT S OF 26N
AND E OF 90W, WHILE NE TO E WINDS OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE ARE
ONGOING OVER THE SW GULF. NORTH OF 26N, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER, EXCEPT LIKELY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM
SW LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE, MODERATE
SEAS TO 6 FT ARE ONGOING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SE GULF
WHILE SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS REMAIN ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST
TONIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN INTO TUE.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FRESH EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF SUN INTO MON,
WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO THE NE GULF TUE THROUGH THU.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN THE FAR NE GULF TO REACH GALE-
FORCE WED AND WED NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THE
FRONT.
..CARIBBEAN SEA
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND THE
COLOMBIAN LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS
OFFSHORE COLOMBIA WITH SEAS IN THE 7 TO 8 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PREVAIL IN THE SE
CARIBBEAN.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL WEAKEN SOME AND SLIDE
EAST SUN, ALLOWING PULSING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE
COLOMBIA TO END. A TROUGH JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL DRIFT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE NEXT WEEK IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS
AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD.
..ATLANTIC OCEAN
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA AND THE AZORES EXTENDS OVER JUST ABOUT
THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE IN THE SUBTROPICS AND
TROPICS IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
SOUTH OF ABOUT 26N AND W OF 58W. ROUGH SEAS UP TO 11 FT ARE
PRESENT WITH THESE WINDS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN 50W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES WHERE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
OFFSHORES AS WELL AS THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT.
FOR THE FORECAST WEST OF 55W, CONDITIONS SOUTH OF 26N WILL IMPROVE
SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EASTWARD AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY TUE, THIS FRONT
WILL STALL FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. LOW PRESSURE MAY
FORM ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY TUE NIGHT THEN TRACK NE ALONG
IT AND N OF THE AREA WED. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
NEAR-GALE-FORCE NE WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS N AND W OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MARINERS ARE ADVISED
TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AND STAY ABREAST FOR POSSIBLE
GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS TUE.
RAMOS
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